- Gold, Silver, Wine Trading



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Name Last Symbol Expire Date Bid Ask  
American Eagle Gold Coin (1 oz.) American Eagle Gold Coin (1 oz.) $1,155.40  GOLD1ozAE-2012/12/31 12/31/14 $1,155.40 $1,340.63 Buy Sell
Canadian Maple Gold Coin (1 oz.) Canadian Maple Gold Coin (1 oz.) $1,155.40  GOLD1ozCM-2012/12/31 12/31/14 $1,155.40 $1,340.43 Buy Sell
American Eagle Silver Coin (1 oz.) American Eagle Silver Coin (1 oz.) $34.08  SILVER1ozAE-2012/12/31 12/31/14 $16.91 $22.38 Buy Sell
Canadian Maple Silver Coin (1 oz.) Canadian Maple Silver Coin (1 oz.) $35.66  SILVER1ozCM-2012/12/31 12/31/14 $16.91 $21.88 Buy Sell
US90% Silver Coins $100 Face (pre1965) (71.5 oz.) US90% Silver Coins $100 Face (pre1965) (71.5 oz.) $1,145.43  SILVER90PC100F-2012/12/31 12/31/14 $1,145.43 $1,414.99 Buy Sell
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  MOVING goldscents 2014-09-20 01:16:37.0
I'm moving the GS blog to the
  Assets & Liabilities - Crash Course Chapter 14 martenson 2014-09-19 23:36:58.0
  Bear Market Odds: A Rational Assessment 2014-09-19 21:24:51.0
Don't have a plan? Some ideas can be found in this
  Missing Money: What Government Accounting Really Looks Like Jeff Desjardins 2014-09-19 17:07:12.0
For some time now, the Government of the United States has been effectively checking through their couch for loose change.
  Gold And Silver Price Drop To Critical Fibonacci Levels Gold Silver Worlds 2014-09-19 16:35:46.0
The Fed decided to keep the 'considerable time' pledge until the first rate hike in its statement on Wednesday.
  Sage Advice for Bored Investors Chris Mayer 2014-09-19 15:58:01.0
I was at lunch with a friend of mine and we were talking about the big vote in Scotland.
  The One Word Every IPO Investor Needs to Know Jonas Elmerraji 2014-09-19 14:48:11.0
'Everyone knows they can make a killing if they get in on the ground floor of an initial public offering'' - CNBCInitial public offerings - better known as IPOs - are exciting.
  How to Escape Obamacare in One Bold Move Chris Campbell 2014-09-19 14:35:36.0
Today I'd like to??feature a story I heard from one of my??
  Cheap Gold Stocks' Upleg Intact zealllc 2014-09-19 12:46:03.0
While gold stocks have been hammered by the heavy gold-futures shorting, they remain dirt-cheap fundamentally relative to gold and their strong uptrend remains intact.
  Let the Alibaba IPO Show You Where the Market's Headed Greg Guenthner 2014-09-19 11:31:55.0
Here's a riddle for you'What's bigger than Amazon, China, and a name you're already sick of hearing?Why it's Alibaba, of course.
  Daily Digest 9/19 - Scotland's 'No' Vote A Win For Betting Markets, Gold Bars Entice Super-Rich martenson 2014-09-19 11:25:39.0
  What Is The VIX Fear Index Telling Us Now? 2014-09-19 10:41:29.0
  Diversification -- What Marc Faber's Portfolio looks like MarcFaberBlog 2014-09-19 08:21:55.0
"I hope that when the collapse happens, I'm only going to lose 50% of my money.
  CHART OF THE DAY goldscents 2014-09-19 06:50:52.0
  Oh My GAWD! Gold Bugs Index (HUI) Has Broken Below Resistance! Lorimer Wilson 2014-09-19 03:52:51.0
The Gold Bugs index pennant pattern ( a series of lower highs and higher lows) that has formed over the past year and a half [has finally broken down through resistance! How low will it now go?]The above introductory comments are edited excerpts from an article* by Chris Kimble (blog.
  Gold Bugs Index (HUI) at Crossroads! Which Way Will It Break? Lorimer Wilson 2014-09-19 03:36:14.0
The Gold Bugs index remains above support that dates back 10-years but, as you can see in the chart below, the pennant pattern ( a series of lower highs and high lows) that has formed over the past year and a half will be coming to an end soon breaking through either above or below the support line.
  This Weekend's Financial Entertainment: ?A Stock Market Crash IS Coming!? Lorimer Wilson 2014-09-19 03:17:23.0
Many have expected me to "change my tune" about the coming collapse because of
  Risk Averse? Here's a Better Strategy Than Having Just Cash Lorimer Wilson 2014-09-19 03:11:09.0
Many investors with little appetite for risk think cash is the safest asset class but
  History Says ?Expect An Economic Crash AGAIN In 2015? ? Here's Why Lorimer Wilson 2014-09-19 03:11:09.0
Large numbers of people believe that an economic crash is coming next year based
  Don't Fear End of QE or Beginning of Higher Interest Rates ? Here's Why Lorimer Wilson 2014-09-19 03:11:09.0
The Fed and the bond market are responding appropriately to declining risk
  Gold price dips below Rs.27,000-level Sat, 20 Sep 2014 07:40:09 -0700
New Delhi, Sep 20 (IANS): Buyers of jewellery may have a reason to cheer as gold prices dipped to the lowest level since July last year, just a few days ahead of the festive season.
  Gold price up today Sat, 20 Sep 2014 02:22:38 -0700
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  Gold Prices to Drop Further on Stronger Dollar and US Policy Move Sat, 20 Sep 2014 01:36:22 -0700
Gold prices are set to drop next week as the prospects of a stronger US dollar and faster-than-expected tightening in US monetary policy are expected to dent the yellow metal's safe-haven status.
  TSX Venture Exchange Daily Bulletins Fri, 19 Sep 2014 16:34:00 -0700
  Why Kinross Gold (KGC) Stock Is Declining Today Fri, 19 Sep 2014 12:28:39 -0700
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Kinross Gold shares are down 3.8% to $3.50 on Friday as companies in the mining sector have suffered asathe price of gold nearly hit a one-year low today. The Comex December gold contract was down to about $1,220 an ounce, a precipitous fall from mid-July when the price was $1,350 an ounce. The 52-week low is $1,185, according Must Read: Warren ...
  PRECIOUS-Gold down, silver at 4-year low on strong dollar, equities Fri, 19 Sep 2014 12:22:37 -0700
* Gold posts 1 pct weekly drop for third weekly decline * Dollar soars to 4-year high vs euro * Silver hits 4-year low * Coming up: U.S. existing home sales Monday (Updates market activities) By Frank Tang and Clara Denina NEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Gold fell 0.8 percent on Friday to its lowest price since January, and silver slumped 3 percent to a four-year low as the dollar surged on ...
  Silver Lake Said to Make $4.5 Billion Alibaba IPO Profit Fri, 19 Sep 2014 11:49:34 -0700
  Oceana takeover reports discounted Fri, 19 Sep 2014 11:07:56 -0700
Speculation Oceana Gold could be a takeover target has been rejected by broker Craigs Investment Partners, given the overall volatility in the mining sector. read more
  Royal Canadian Mint Announces the Completion of the Canadian Silver Reserves 2014 Purchase Right Fri, 19 Sep 2014 09:15:00 -0700
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES The Royal Canadian Mint is announcing the issuance of 4,914 Silver Exchange-Traded Receipts following completion of......
  Of course the Gold Price is manipulated, that???s the point! - The "London Gold Pool" - 1961 to 1968 Fri, 19 Sep 2014 07:45:17 -0700
By the beginning of the 1960s, the U.S.$ 35 = 1 oz. Gold price was becoming more and more difficult to sustain. Gold demand was rising and U.S. Gold reserves were falling, both as a result of the ever increasing trade deficits which the U.S. continued to run with the rest of the world.
  Gold & Silver Market Morning Fri, 19 Sep 2014 07:43:51 -0700
  Investors Stuck or Sticking With Silver ETFs Fri, 19 Sep 2014 06:30:59 -0700
In what remains an interesting phenomenon, investors are standing by physically-backed silver exchange traded funds even as gold, a metal to which silver is highly correlated, falters and the U.S. dollar ...
  Next big wine trend points to South Africa Fri, 19 Sep 2014 05:02:00 -0700
Modern technique mixes with viticultural tradition to propel the nation?s vintners.
  Gold Market, ETFs Won???t Find Help From Chinese Consumers Fri, 19 Sep 2014 05:00:32 -0700
The bullion market and gold-related exchange traded funds may not receive a boost from China this time around, with Chinese investors sitting on the sidelines after a major buying spree last year. Year-to-date, ...
  Weekend Sip: It???s a wine, it???s a tribute ??? it???s Josh Fri, 19 Sep 2014 03:08:16 -0700
  Gold price low and heading lower Thu, 18 Sep 2014 23:04:01 -0700
Gold prices are trading around their lowest level since January but analysts say a further slide is likely.
  How to use the Commitment of Traders Report? Wed, 19 Jun 2013 18:08:00 GMT
The Commitment of Traders report (COT report) is a weekly report, which is issued on every Friday by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report contains the details of the positions of all the market participants. Every report that comes on Friday contains the data as of the preceding Tuesday.

The role of CFTC is to Commodities Future & Options market what SEC is to equity markets. The COT is a very handy, reliable and important report as it has good deal of data related to the market positions and trends of various trader groups. It is very useful in understanding the current and future market movements.

The structure of the COT report is detailed and it provides data segregated into different trader groups. The three main categories being: commercial traders, non-commercial traders and non-reportables.

Commercial Traders: They are the main players of the Commodity future markets. They are essentially hedgers and their trades are for actual delivery of the underlying asset. They have the largest positions in the markets and are big entities like Producers and users/consumers. They have the best knowledge of demand, supply & market movements etc. and enter into contracts as per their requirements and forecasts.

Non-commercial traders: They are also generally big traders but unlike the commercial traders, their positions are mostly for speculative profits. They enter a position with a view to make money and exit the position long before the due dates.

Non-reportables: This is the smallest group of traders and consists of individuals or other small entities that trade on speculative lines. Their holdings are individually too small to be required to report to CFTC and hence the name.

Over the years, CFTC has been providing the report with the aforesaid three categories of traders. But in the recent years, it has started providing disaggregated reports, further categorizing the traders. The picture below illustrates the disaggregated trader categories.

In the above classification, Swap dealers represent the Pension funds, endowments etc. These funds rather than directly trading in the future markets, work through the services of Swap dealers.

Basics of COT report

The COT report is a very valuable source of information, which can be used to get an idea of the future market movements and accordingly device a trading strategy. Let's take a sample COT report of Gold Futures dated 11th June and try to understand the basic data sets and their implications.

A gold future contract is of 100 Troy ounces and the above report is a part of the COT report on metals issued by CFTC on 14th of June, 2013. The report shows the category wise positions as on June 11th. In each category, the long and short positions represent the number of contracts held. The total open interest shows the sum of all contracts (both long & short), that have neither expired nor settled. From the above data, we can get the following perspectives about the current market conditions.

The total open interest is 373,844, which is marginally up by 783 from the previous week. This indicates a bit higher market participation. The benefit of an increased open interest is that a higher number of transactions take place increasing the liquidity. At the same time it also indicates better market conditions for trading and may be a sign of trend reversal.

The net position of Producers/Merchants category is still on the bearish side but compared to last week it shows increase of 3,251 in long contracts. Remember that this group has the best knowledge of the markets and they are bearish with slight movements towards bullish side of the fence. This movement towards long position may be short term or long term. Now if we look at the data of past few weeks, we will observe that there is a gradual increase in the long position of this group. The total extent of their short positions has been decreasing over the time. This may indicate a positive outlook for gold in the future.

The swap dealers reflect the same approach as far as the net position is considered.

Managed Money traders have a contrarian position. This may be due to the longer time frame that they generally target, eliminating the reflection of short-term market sentiments in their position.

Other reportable and the non-reportables are generally market followers. They are mostly in a position opposite to that of commercials. One thing that you should always avoid is to follow the trend of non-reportables.

The current COT report can further be compared to the past data and more inferences can be deduced. For example, if you compare the open interest with past data, you would see that it has been falling and has dropped quite low. Also this drop has somewhat stabilized over the past few weeks and it seems to be bottoming up. This indicates that a strong level of support for the gold prices may have been achieved and there are pretty good chances of a trend reversal.

Some takeaways

Now since you have some understanding of how to use COT report, you must keep the following points in mind while using it.

COT report comes with a time delay of 3 days. This is a dampening factor to the uses of the report in framing intraday and very short-term trade strategies.

The data content is excellent and reliable. This makes it a great source of getting market insights.

Further derivations of the COT report in the form index creation or indicators etc can further add to its utility.

Use other tools in combination with COT insights to validate your analysis.

COT report as such is of great value. No wonders why CFTC has to give in to the demands of weekly reports from the market participants, rather than the bi-monthly report that it used to provide in the past. That's all as of now. Happy trading!!!


  Gold and Silver Speculator Long Positions Wiped Out Fri, 26 Apr 2013 21:17:00 GMT
Small speculators, also known as individual investors, have had their net long positions in gold and silver completely wiped out over the last two weeks. As of last Tuesday, these small investors held a mere 133 net long gold contracts, and 2163 net long silver contracts. As recently as September, when we turned cautious on the metals, small speculators held over 60,000 net long gold contracts and 20,000 silver contracts. If the small speculators were to sell anymore gold and silver, they would become net short.

Typically commercial banks manipulate prices on low volume to set the price and then trade at the newly set price in volume. The recent crash in gold and silver began after hours on a Friday, and was hit further by large sell orders Sunday night to take out the well known technical support lines of both metals. Most small retails investors were probably not even contacted by their futures broker. By the time they checked their account the next Monday Morning, either their protective stop orders were triggered or the margin clerk forcefully closed their position. The snowball effect in margin calls and stop loss orders was great enough to last several days.

None of this is surprising. However, we were quite surprised to see that net short positions of commercial traders rose substantially during this period. Typically they would be expected to cover their short positions at lower prices, mopping up the losses of retail investors.

This reveals several important changes to the gold and silver markets:
1) It took an enormous number of short positions added to move the market even on a weekend.
2) The gambit failed, as they were not able to cover these positions in volume after the dump. Nevertheless, as we have been expecting for several years, the commercial traders will be net long before the metals make new highs. But if they can't cover at lower prices, they will begin covering at higher prices as we saw when silver rose from $20 fall 2010 to $50 in spring 2011.

We suspect that the failure of the gold gambit is largely due to the unexpected surge in GLOBAL demand for physical metal. Premiums on bullion products are higher than they were during the 2008 crash, with even junk silver selling at $5-$6 over the paper spot price. This is unprecedented.

The consolidation in gold and silver over the last two years has been painful, especially for mining investors. However, with the prices of the metals at or below production costs, along with shortages of retail bullion products, and zero net long small investors, we are struggling to identify any more sellers. The summer season is typically weak for precious metals, and they could easily back and fill a base over the next six months, however the risk in accumulating physical metals in this price range is very low. We also believe that producing miners with cash holdings represent substantial value at this time.
  Caution Advised in Gold and Silver Sun, 02 Sep 2012 02:35:00 GMT
Gold and especially silver have succumbed to a long a demoralizing correction over the last 12 to 18 months. The summer doldrums likely marked the bottom of this correction, and the metals have turn the corner higher. However, both gold and silver investors will likely have their resolve tested once again in the coming weeks before the metals are able to break higher.

Precious metals (GLD, SLV), and mining equities surged from their 2008 lows to their 2011 highs in reaction to massive monetary intervention, and an initial surge in inflationary expectations. Although interest rates have remained near zero, and real interest rates are clearly negative, precious metals investors have been disappointed by the ongoing global stagflationary wealth destruction, and the failure of further intervention by policy makers. The Federal Reserve has admitted that the US economy is weaker than desired, yet it has also continually disappointed in announcing a new quantitative easing as it seeks political justification.

The last two years of global policy makers kicking the can down the road, in conjunction with weaker demand from India, has created the environment for a severe correction in gold, silver, and miners. While it hasn't been the most severe in terms of percentage loss, it has likely been the most severe in terms of sentiment. With Europe, India, China, and the US all decelerating at a rapid pace, and the US fiscal cliff returning the political forefront, we believe that we are months away at the most from a turn in monetary policy. Verbal intervention has run its course, and real monetary intervention is a mathematical certainty.

Gold miners(GDX) bottomed in May, and are leading the metals. They are now overbought and could face a sharp correction before breaking out.

Gold and silver may already have begun pricing in future intervention, however commercial banks are not yet on board with the breakout in gold and silver. Net commercial short positions in both gold and silver, at a time when prices are near resistance levels and overbought are indicating that a short and severe correction could be imminent.

Silver has had an especially large spike in commercial short positions over the last three weeks.

The current commercial short positions in silver and gold must be reduced before the metals can break higher. In other words, commercial banks must cover the majority of their short positions. While they could cover as prices rise, history suggests that the most likely scenario is for the commercial banks to take down the price and cover at lower levels. This correction will likely coincide with the realization of a global recession/depression in 2013 and end with the realization of further monetary intervention.
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