|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
EDITORIALS
|
| |
|
SeedSafe - Special Off martenson
2015-01-24 05:26:44.0
| |
|
|
| |
|
The Most Important Thing For 2015 ciovaccocapital.com
2015-01-23 23:29:39.0
After you click play, use the button in the lower-right corner of the video player to view in full-screen mode.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Gold & Silver Miners Are Really Taking Off! Lorimer Wilson
2015-01-23 23:22:08.0
The recent double bottom is a very bullish
| |
|
|
| |
|
Gold & Silver Miners Are Taking Off ? Sort Of! Lorimer Wilson
2015-01-23 23:15:55.0
The recent double bottom is a very bullish
| |
|
|
| |
|
Peter Thiel Explains What Backs the U.S. Dollar Chris Mayer
2015-01-23 21:56:43.0
This post
| |
|
|
| |
|
Gold Maintains Strength while Large Miners Reach Resistance Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
2015-01-23 20:31:54.0
In recent days and weeks we noted key levels for Gold at $1250 as well as $1270-$1280.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Could Steak Really Cause Arthritis? Stephen Petranek
2015-01-23 20:20:23.0
This post
| |
|
|
| |
|
Russia Continues Buying Gold Aggressively, Despite Western Sanctions Jason Hamlin
2015-01-23 20:12:48.0
| |
|
|
| |
|
Russia Continues Buying Gold Aggressively, Despite Sanctions Jason Hamlin
2015-01-23 20:06:02.0
| |
|
|
| |
|
Russia Continue Buying Gold Aggressively, Despite Sanctions Jason Hamlin
2015-01-23 19:46:11.0
| |
|
|
| |
|
Stock Traders Flock to Gold zealllc
2015-01-23 17:26:39.0
Stock traders aggressively bought GLD shares this past week, forcing its custodians to issue new shares and buy the most gold bullion in such a short span in 5 years.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Daily Digest 1/23 - The Rigging Of The Gold Market, Saudi King Misremembered As Man Of Peace martenson
2015-01-23 16:16:14.0
| |
|
|
| |
|
Off The Cuff: Central Banks Gone Wild martenson
2015-01-23 16:16:14.0
| |
|
|
| |
|
Most Recent Comments Via Twitter ciovaccocapital.com
2015-01-23 15:50:41.0
You can access them
| |
|
|
| |
|
Will We See An Economic Crash In 2015? These Analysts Think So Lorimer Wilson
2015-01-23 15:30:36.0
Dozens (dare I say hundreds?) of "analysts" (should I say alarmists?) are convinced
| |
|
|
| |
|
Fasten Your Seat Belts! Here's My U.S. Domestic Forecast For 2015 Lorimer Wilson
2015-01-23 15:24:23.0
Fasten your seat belts! Below is my forecast (Part 3) of what will unfold in the U.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Now's the Time to Buy Housing Stocks ? While They're Cheap Greg Guenthner
2015-01-23 15:19:16.0
This post
| |
|
|
| |
|
Fasten Your Seat Belts! Here's My U.S. Domestic Forecast For 2015 Lorimer Wilson
2015-01-23 15:18:07.0
Fasten your seat belts! Below is my forecast (Part 3) of what will unfold in the U.
| |
|
|
| |
|
New Model Suggest $2,000 Gold by End Of 2015 Likely Lorimer Wilson
2015-01-23 15:05:28.0
In spite of the fact that gold has rallied from a price of $1,140 last November, my long-term
| |
|
|
| |
|
The Central Banks will be exposed for All The Fraud they Commit MarcFaberBlog
2015-01-23 09:55:25.0
"I think people will wake up finally and say, if they can short central banks, that is the trade of the century," Faber said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now.
| |
|
|
|
| | |
LATEST NEWS
|
| |
|
Pregnant? There?s a ?Wine? For You!
Mon, 26 Jan 2015 15:49:43 -0800
Pregnant women might find it a little depressing when celebratory ?cheers? start up at a party, followed by the clinking of glasses, when their beverage is a can of Sprite, or a cup of ice water. A North Carolina mom and entrepreneur had those expectant women in mind when she created 9Months, a non-alcoholic sparkling wine. 9Months is made from south Australian grapes that are typically used for ...
| |
|
|
| |
|
Hawke's Bay has a pronounced wine advantage in China
Mon, 26 Jan 2015 15:33:08 -0800
Hawke's Bay's wines are top class, but the fact the region is easy to pronounce in Mandarin may be its biggest advantage in the Chinese market, according to that nation's leading wine commentator.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Gold price dips as equities recover following Greek vote
Mon, 26 Jan 2015 12:09:40 -0800
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Gold fell more than 1 percent on Monday as traders cashed in gains that took the metal to five-month highs last week, with the wider markets shrugging off news that an anti-austerity party had won elections in Greece. Greek leftist leader Alexis Tsipras, whose Syriza party swept to victory in a snap election on Sunday, was set to become prime minister of the first ...
| |
|
|
| |
|
PRECIOUS-Gold price dips as equities recover following Greek vote
Mon, 26 Jan 2015 12:00:31 -0800
* Greek anti-austerity party wins snap election * Equities, euro recover losses after Greek vote * CME's Hong Kong contract begins trading (Updates prices, adds comment, NEW YORK dateline) By Marcy Nicholson and Jan Harvey NEW YORK/LONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Gold fell more than 1 percent on Monday as traders cashed in gains that took the metal to five-month highs last week, with the wider ...
| |
|
|
| |
|
Precious Metals Coveted Once More as Draghi Acts
Mon, 26 Jan 2015 11:28:01 -0800
Their buying helped boost the value of exchange-traded products backed by gold and silver by $8.2 billion this month, the most since September 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The European Central Bank president's stimulus sent the euro to an 11-year low against the dollar, pushed government bond yields lower and raised the appeal of alternatives to currencies that are being revalued. The ...
| |
|
|
| |
|
Update: Wine stolen from French Laundry recovered in North Carolina
Mon, 26 Jan 2015 11:08:41 -0800
Investigators have recovered the bulk of the premium wine bottles stolen from The French Laundry on Christmas Day, according to the Napa County Sheriff?s Office. No arrests have been made.
| |
|
|
| |
|
GoGold Increased Production by 100% in the Quarter ending December 2014 - Cash Cost of $6.62 per Silver Eq Oz.
Mon, 26 Jan 2015 10:50:00 -0800
GoGold Increased Production by 100% in the Quarter ending December 2014 - Cash Cost of $6.62 per Silver Eq Oz.
| |
|
|
| |
|
This gold price rally is finished
Mon, 26 Jan 2015 09:06:40 -0800
Elliott wave and Fibonacci theories both point to a trend change in the gold price charts. John C Burford explains. The post This gold price rally is finished was first published on MoneyWeek .
| |
|
|
| |
|
Gold & Silver Market Morning
Mon, 26 Jan 2015 07:54:02 -0800
Gold Today ? New York closed at $1,293.70 down $10.00. In Asia gold held that level, but in London the price dropped to $1,281 with the euro again weaker by a cent at $1.1228 down 1.00 cent against the dollar.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Timmins Gold Reports Record Production of 121,573 AuEq Ozs in 2014 and 25,304 AuEq Ozs For the Fourth Quarter of 2014
Mon, 26 Jan 2015 06:07:25 -0800
Timmins Gold Corp. is pleased to report preliminary production results for the Company's fourth quarter ended December 31, 2014. The Company achieved record production of 121,573 gold equivalent ounces ...
| |
|
|
| |
|
Northair Silver Corp. Plans Further Metallurgical Testing for La Cigarra Silver Project, Mexico
Mon, 26 Jan 2015 05:00:00 -0800
Northair Silver Corp. is pleased to announce that a third phase of metallurgical test work is scheduled to start in February on its La Cigarra silver project, located in Chihuahua State Mexico.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Silver Bull Announces Closing of Sale of Gabon Asset to BHK Mining Corp.
Mon, 26 Jan 2015 05:00:00 -0800
Silver Bull Resources, Inc. is pleased to announce the closing on January 23, 2015 of the transaction, as previously announced on May 22, 2014 and December 17, 2013, with BHK Mining Corp. in connection ...
| |
|
|
| |
|
Crocodile Gold Achieves Record Operating Cash Flow For The Year Ended December 31, 2014
Mon, 26 Jan 2015 04:00:00 -0800
Crocodile Gold Corp. today reported preliminary operating cash flow, operating cash costs and all-in sustaining costs for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2014. Full financial results for ...
| |
|
|
| |
|
Australian gold producers benefit from price rebound and weaker dollar
Sun, 25 Jan 2015 23:40:46 -0800
With the gold price rebounding from its lows and the dollar weaker, smaller gold producers are running hot.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Kirkland Lake Gold Appoints Eric Sprott as Chairman of the Board
Sun, 25 Jan 2015 23:00:00 -0800
Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. , is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr. Eric Steven Sprott as Chairman of the board of directors, subject to regulatory approvals. Upon receipt of regulatory approvals Mr. ...
| |
|
|
| |
|
CHI SILVER GP (00815) has risen 5.405%. The last price is HK$1.95
Sun, 25 Jan 2015 20:16:11 -0800
[Rising Stock] CHI SILVER GP (00815)'s price went up 5.405% at 09:37a.m . Its last price is...
| |
|
|
|
|
| | |
LATEST FROM BLOG
|
| |
|
How to use the Commitment of Traders Report?
Wed, 19 Jun 2013 18:08:00 GMT
The Commitment of Traders report (COT report) is a weekly report, which is issued on every Friday by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report contains the details of the positions of all the market participants. Every report that comes on Friday contains the data as of the preceding Tuesday.
The role of CFTC is to Commodities Future & Options market what SEC is to equity markets. The COT is a very handy, reliable and important report as it has good deal of data related to the market positions and trends of various trader groups. It is very useful in understanding the current and future market movements.
The structure of the COT report is detailed and it provides data segregated into different trader groups. The three main categories being: commercial traders, non-commercial traders and non-reportables.
Commercial Traders: They are the main players of the Commodity future markets. They are essentially hedgers and their trades are for actual delivery of the underlying asset. They have the largest positions in the markets and are big entities like Producers and users/consumers. They have the best knowledge of demand, supply & market movements etc. and enter into contracts as per their requirements and forecasts.
Non-commercial traders: They are also generally big traders but unlike the commercial traders, their positions are mostly for speculative profits. They enter a position with a view to make money and exit the position long before the due dates.
Non-reportables: This is the smallest group of traders and consists of individuals or other small entities that trade on speculative lines. Their holdings are individually too small to be required to report to CFTC and hence the name.
Over the years, CFTC has been providing the report with the aforesaid three categories of traders. But in the recent years, it has started providing disaggregated reports, further categorizing the traders. The picture below illustrates the disaggregated trader categories.
In the above classification, Swap dealers represent the Pension funds, endowments etc. These funds rather than directly trading in the future markets, work through the services of Swap dealers.
Basics of COT report
The COT report is a very valuable source of information, which can be used to get an idea of the future market movements and accordingly device a trading strategy. Let's take a sample COT report of Gold Futures dated 11th June and try to understand the basic data sets and their implications.
A gold future contract is of 100 Troy ounces and the above report is a part of the COT report on metals issued by CFTC on 14th of June, 2013. The report shows the category wise positions as on June 11th. In each category, the long and short positions represent the number of contracts held. The total open interest shows the sum of all contracts (both long & short), that have neither expired nor settled. From the above data, we can get the following perspectives about the current market conditions.
The total open interest is 373,844, which is marginally up by 783 from the previous week. This indicates a bit higher market participation. The benefit of an increased open interest is that a higher number of transactions take place increasing the liquidity. At the same time it also indicates better market conditions for trading and may be a sign of trend reversal.
The net position of Producers/Merchants category is still on the bearish side but compared to last week it shows increase of 3,251 in long contracts. Remember that this group has the best knowledge of the markets and they are bearish with slight movements towards bullish side of the fence. This movement towards long position may be short term or long term. Now if we look at the data of past few weeks, we will observe that there is a gradual increase in the long position of this group. The total extent of their short positions has been decreasing over the time. This may indicate a positive outlook for gold in the future.
The swap dealers reflect the same approach as far as the net position is considered.
Managed Money traders have a contrarian position. This may be due to the longer time frame that they generally target, eliminating the reflection of short-term market sentiments in their position.
Other reportable and the non-reportables are generally market followers. They are mostly in a position opposite to that of commercials. One thing that you should always avoid is to follow the trend of non-reportables.
The current COT report can further be compared to the past data and more inferences can be deduced. For example, if you compare the open interest with past data, you would see that it has been falling and has dropped quite low. Also this drop has somewhat stabilized over the past few weeks and it seems to be bottoming up. This indicates that a strong level of support for the gold prices may have been achieved and there are pretty good chances of a trend reversal.
Some takeaways
Now since you have some understanding of how to use COT report, you must keep the following points in mind while using it.
COT report comes with a time delay of 3 days. This is a dampening factor to the uses of the report in framing intraday and very short-term trade strategies.
The data content is excellent and reliable. This makes it a great source of getting market insights.
Further derivations of the COT report in the form index creation or indicators etc can further add to its utility.
Use other tools in combination with COT insights to validate your analysis.
COT report as such is of great value. No wonders why CFTC has to give in to the demands of weekly reports from the market participants, rather than the bi-monthly report that it used to provide in the past. That's all as of now. Happy trading!!!
From quantshare.com
| |
|
|
| |
|
Gold and Silver Speculator Long Positions Wiped Out
Fri, 26 Apr 2013 21:17:00 GMT
Small speculators, also known as individual investors, have had their net long positions in gold and silver completely wiped out over the last two weeks. As of last Tuesday, these small investors held a mere 133 net long gold contracts, and 2163 net long silver contracts. As recently as September, when we turned cautious on the metals, small speculators held over 60,000 net long gold contracts and 20,000 silver contracts. If the small speculators were to sell anymore gold and silver, they would become net short.
Typically commercial banks manipulate prices on low volume to set the price and then trade at the newly set price in volume. The recent crash in gold and silver began after hours on a Friday, and was hit further by large sell orders Sunday night to take out the well known technical support lines of both metals. Most small retails investors were probably not even contacted by their futures broker. By the time they checked their account the next Monday Morning, either their protective stop orders were triggered or the margin clerk forcefully closed their position. The snowball effect in margin calls and stop loss orders was great enough to last several days.
None of this is surprising. However, we were quite surprised to see that net short positions of commercial traders rose substantially during this period. Typically they would be expected to cover their short positions at lower prices, mopping up the losses of retail investors.
This reveals several important changes to the gold and silver markets:
1) It took an enormous number of short positions added to move the market even on a weekend.
2) The gambit failed, as they were not able to cover these positions in volume after the dump. Nevertheless, as we have been expecting for several years, the commercial traders will be net long before the metals make new highs. But if they can't cover at lower prices, they will begin covering at higher prices as we saw when silver rose from $20 fall 2010 to $50 in spring 2011.
We suspect that the failure of the gold gambit is largely due to the unexpected surge in GLOBAL demand for physical metal. Premiums on bullion products are higher than they were during the 2008 crash, with even junk silver selling at $5-$6 over the paper spot price. This is unprecedented.
The consolidation in gold and silver over the last two years has been painful, especially for mining investors. However, with the prices of the metals at or below production costs, along with shortages of retail bullion products, and zero net long small investors, we are struggling to identify any more sellers. The summer season is typically weak for precious metals, and they could easily back and fill a base over the next six months, however the risk in accumulating physical metals in this price range is very low. We also believe that producing miners with cash holdings represent substantial value at this time.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Caution Advised in Gold and Silver
Sun, 02 Sep 2012 02:35:00 GMT
Gold and especially silver have succumbed to a long a demoralizing correction over the last 12 to 18 months. The summer doldrums likely marked the bottom of this correction, and the metals have turn the corner higher. However, both gold and silver investors will likely have their resolve tested once again in the coming weeks before the metals are able to break higher.
Precious metals (GLD, SLV), and mining equities surged from their 2008 lows to their 2011 highs in reaction to massive monetary intervention, and an initial surge in inflationary expectations. Although interest rates have remained near zero, and real interest rates are clearly negative, precious metals investors have been disappointed by the ongoing global stagflationary wealth destruction, and the failure of further intervention by policy makers. The Federal Reserve has admitted that the US economy is weaker than desired, yet it has also continually disappointed in announcing a new quantitative easing as it seeks political justification.
The last two years of global policy makers kicking the can down the road, in conjunction with weaker demand from India, has created the environment for a severe correction in gold, silver, and miners. While it hasn't been the most severe in terms of percentage loss, it has likely been the most severe in terms of sentiment. With Europe, India, China, and the US all decelerating at a rapid pace, and the US fiscal cliff returning the political forefront, we believe that we are months away at the most from a turn in monetary policy. Verbal intervention has run its course, and real monetary intervention is a mathematical certainty.
Gold miners(GDX) bottomed in May, and are leading the metals. They are now overbought and could face a sharp correction before breaking out.
Gold and silver may already have begun pricing in future intervention, however commercial banks are not yet on board with the breakout in gold and silver. Net commercial short positions in both gold and silver, at a time when prices are near resistance levels and overbought are indicating that a short and severe correction could be imminent.
Silver has had an especially large spike in commercial short positions over the last three weeks.
The current commercial short positions in silver and gold must be reduced before the metals can break higher. In other words, commercial banks must cover the majority of their short positions. While they could cover as prices rise, history suggests that the most likely scenario is for the commercial banks to take down the price and cover at lower levels. This correction will likely coincide with the realization of a global recession/depression in 2013 and end with the realization of further monetary intervention.
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
