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EDITORIALS
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Preparedness for Business martenson
2014-03-07 19:04:41.0
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On a Manhunt for Newly Created Currency The Mogambo Guru
2014-03-07 16:33:09.0
My poor back was aching from playing golf, I was bored with TV, and, in desperation for something to do other than taking an interest in the kids, doing some desperately-needed chores around the house, or even faking the slightest interest in ANY of that crap, I was casually looking at, you know, economic stuff.
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7 Stories That Will Shape the Next 10 Years and Beyond Stephen Petranek
2014-03-07 15:47:08.0
1.
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Gold Miners: Overbought or Oversold Tiho Brkan
2014-03-07 15:26:10.0
Chart 1: Gold mining sector has grossly under performed S&P 500
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124,000 Jobs Estimated Into Existence Jim Sinclair
2014-03-07 14:13:48.0
Jim, The CES Birth Death model (not shown) claims that 124,000 jobs were estimated into existence.
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In The News Today Jim Sinclair
2014-03-07 14:07:16.0
Ousted Ukrainian president Yanukovych is 'gravely ill' after heart attack as plane carrying country's new leader is boarded by SWAT team after terrorist attack alert By Will Stewart In Moscow and James Rush PUBLISHED: 03:37 EST, 7 March 2014 | UPDATED: 12:02 EST, 7 March 2014 Deposed president of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych is in a.
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The London Gold Fix, Manipulation & the Quantum Paul Tustain
2014-03-07 13:28:43.0
Does Heisenberg's uncertainty principle shed light on "manipulation" of the London Gold Fix? Or is it the other way around? ?? WHEN Werner Heisenberg looked at his brand new quantum formulae in 1927, writes Paul Tustain, founder and CEO of
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Daily Digest 3/7 - Rains Ease Calif. Drought, Make Wildfire Outlook Grimmer, Russia Calls In $2 Billion Gas Debt as Ukraine Digs In martenson
2014-03-07 12:49:19.0
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Gold-ETF Inflows Return zealllc
2014-03-07 12:27:08.0
February saw the GLD gold ETF's first capital inflows in over a year, despite the sharply-rising US stock markets.
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Are There Cracks In The Bullish Case For Stocks? ciovaccocapital.com
2014-03-07 12:21:50.0
Bulls Try To Survive Employment Report
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What Politicians Don't Understand About Bailouts John Goodman
2014-03-07 11:54:50.0
Recently, I testified before the House Oversight committee on the "risk corridors" in the (Obamacare) exchanges.
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Bitcoin Trading Alert: Alleged Bitcoin Creator Denies Any Involvement SunshineProfits
2014-03-07 11:35:17.0
To the point: we don't support having any short-term positions in the Bitcoin market.
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Biotech Bulls May Be Near Exhaustion Greg Guenthner
2014-03-07 11:08:47.0
Tear up your scratchers - there's a much more profitable lottery you could play right now.
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Surprise! A Profitable, Low-Risk Gold Company Chris Mayer
2014-03-07 09:07:03.0
Gold is wonderful in many ways, but gold miners are another story.
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Russian Dollar Dump Could Crash Financial System-John Williams Jason Hamlin
2014-03-07 07:40:35.0
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Faber : In a Free Market Economy, you will always have price fluctuations MarcFaberBlog
2014-03-07 06:03:35.0
TD: Marc, your fellow board member at Sprott Inc.
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Gold Prices Ease in Asia; ECB leaves Benchmark Interest Rate at 0.5 percent Investing.com
2014-03-07 04:47:21.0
Gold prices eased slightly in Asian trade on Friday, retracing overnight gains in the U.
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In The News Today Jim Sinclair
2014-03-07 02:06:00.0
Jim Sinclair's Commentary The latest from John Williams.
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Jim's Mailbox Jim Sinclair
2014-03-07 02:06:00.0
Jim, The USD broke 80.
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Paul Craig Roberts ? They Will Get The Whole World Blown Up Eric King
2014-03-07 02:06:00.0
Dear CIGAs, Today former US Treasury official, Dr.
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LATEST NEWS
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Gold lawsuit sparks concerns of market manipulation, collusion
Fri, 07 Mar 2014 10:57:20 -0800
A recently filed lawsuit alleging price fixing in the gold market is the latest evidence of increased scrutiny into the nearly century-old "London Gold Fix."
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Wine Talk: New Souverain maintains value legacy
Fri, 07 Mar 2014 08:38:36 -0800
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Gold & Silver Market Morning
Fri, 07 Mar 2014 06:08:03 -0800
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PRECIOUS-Gold steady, set for 5th week of gains on safe-haven demand
Thu, 06 Mar 2014 23:30:05 -0800
* Gold up nearly 2 pct for the week as Ukraine tensions mount * Physical demand quiet due to price rally * Palladium near year-high on supply fears * Coming up: US nonfarm payrolls at 1330 GMT (Updates prices) By A. Ananthalakshmi SINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - Gold held steady on Friday after its sharp overnight rise to near a four-month high and was poised to log its fifth straight week of ...
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Gold steady, set for 5th week of gains on safe-haven demand
Thu, 06 Mar 2014 23:13:50 -0800
By A. Ananthalakshmi SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Gold held steady on Friday after its sharp overnight rise to trade near a four-month high and was poised to log its fifth straight week of gains as a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine lifted its safe-haven status. A poor jobs report could further boost gold prices but some traders warned that prices could have already accounted for the ...
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Gold Coasters paying highest fuel price
Thu, 06 Mar 2014 18:59:50 -0800
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CHI SILVER GP (00815) has risen 5%. The last price is HK$1.26
Thu, 06 Mar 2014 11:39:34 -0800
[Rising Stock] CHI SILVER GP (00815)'s price went up 5% at 03:55p.m . Its last price is HK$...
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Gold Ends Slightly Up After More Tepid U.S. Economic Data Released
Thu, 06 Mar 2014 09:20:29 -0800
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Gold Price Manipulation: What's Next?
Thu, 06 Mar 2014 06:27:08 -0800
Source picture: Bloomberg It appears that the gold fanatics were right the whole time. For at least ten years, the price of gold has been manipulated. The banks are the bad guys once more, who would have thought?! If you work at a bank and do your job the way you are supposed to, it might be smart regardless to not talk about your professional activities when you are at a party this week ...
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Suit charges gold price manipulation
Wed, 05 Mar 2014 14:30:02 -0800
Five banks involved in setting the London benchmark gold price have been accused in a lawsuit of price manipulation.
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Nomura raises gold forecasts as price drivers 'already reset'
Wed, 05 Mar 2014 11:36:57 -0800
Nomura Securities has raised its 2014 gold price forecast to US$1,335/oz this year from the previous US$1,138/oz as the speed of last year's price decline "brings forward the start of the next cycle."
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U.S. Silver & Gold Inc. announces planned private placement for up to CDN$6,700,000
Wed, 05 Mar 2014 10:12:00 -0800
U.S. Silver & Gold Inc. announces planned private placement for up to CDN$6,700,000
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London gold-fix banks accused of manipulation in U.S. lawsuit
Wed, 05 Mar 2014 06:38:44 -0800
The five banks involved in setting the London benchmark gold price have been accused in a lawsuit of price manipulation, a filing with a U.S. federal court in New York showed. In the filing with the U.S. District Court in Manhattan dated March 3, New York resident Kevin Maher, who says he bought and sold gold and gold futures and options, alleged the banks overseeing the benchmark - Societe ...
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Maya Gold & Silver Reports Positive NI 43-101 Preliminary Economic Assessment
Wed, 05 Mar 2014 06:23:50 -0800
Maya Gold & Silver Inc. is pleased to announce the results of independent NI 43-101 Preliminary Economic Assessment Study on the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. The PEA Study was prepared by SGS Geostat ...
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Wine.com Hosts Fourth Annual Industry Growth Summit
Wed, 05 Mar 2014 03:00:00 -0800
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Questor share tip: Fresnillo hit by silver slump
Wed, 05 Mar 2014 01:32:45 -0800
Mexican based precious metal miner hit by falling price of gold and silver, says Questor
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LATEST FROM BLOG
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How to use the Commitment of Traders Report?
Wed, 19 Jun 2013 18:08:00 GMT
The Commitment of Traders report (COT report) is a weekly report, which is issued on every Friday by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report contains the details of the positions of all the market participants. Every report that comes on Friday contains the data as of the preceding Tuesday.
The role of CFTC is to Commodities Future & Options market what SEC is to equity markets. The COT is a very handy, reliable and important report as it has good deal of data related to the market positions and trends of various trader groups. It is very useful in understanding the current and future market movements.
The structure of the COT report is detailed and it provides data segregated into different trader groups. The three main categories being: commercial traders, non-commercial traders and non-reportables.
Commercial Traders: They are the main players of the Commodity future markets. They are essentially hedgers and their trades are for actual delivery of the underlying asset. They have the largest positions in the markets and are big entities like Producers and users/consumers. They have the best knowledge of demand, supply & market movements etc. and enter into contracts as per their requirements and forecasts.
Non-commercial traders: They are also generally big traders but unlike the commercial traders, their positions are mostly for speculative profits. They enter a position with a view to make money and exit the position long before the due dates.
Non-reportables: This is the smallest group of traders and consists of individuals or other small entities that trade on speculative lines. Their holdings are individually too small to be required to report to CFTC and hence the name.
Over the years, CFTC has been providing the report with the aforesaid three categories of traders. But in the recent years, it has started providing disaggregated reports, further categorizing the traders. The picture below illustrates the disaggregated trader categories.
In the above classification, Swap dealers represent the Pension funds, endowments etc. These funds rather than directly trading in the future markets, work through the services of Swap dealers.
Basics of COT report
The COT report is a very valuable source of information, which can be used to get an idea of the future market movements and accordingly device a trading strategy. Let's take a sample COT report of Gold Futures dated 11th June and try to understand the basic data sets and their implications.
A gold future contract is of 100 Troy ounces and the above report is a part of the COT report on metals issued by CFTC on 14th of June, 2013. The report shows the category wise positions as on June 11th. In each category, the long and short positions represent the number of contracts held. The total open interest shows the sum of all contracts (both long & short), that have neither expired nor settled. From the above data, we can get the following perspectives about the current market conditions.
The total open interest is 373,844, which is marginally up by 783 from the previous week. This indicates a bit higher market participation. The benefit of an increased open interest is that a higher number of transactions take place increasing the liquidity. At the same time it also indicates better market conditions for trading and may be a sign of trend reversal.
The net position of Producers/Merchants category is still on the bearish side but compared to last week it shows increase of 3,251 in long contracts. Remember that this group has the best knowledge of the markets and they are bearish with slight movements towards bullish side of the fence. This movement towards long position may be short term or long term. Now if we look at the data of past few weeks, we will observe that there is a gradual increase in the long position of this group. The total extent of their short positions has been decreasing over the time. This may indicate a positive outlook for gold in the future.
The swap dealers reflect the same approach as far as the net position is considered.
Managed Money traders have a contrarian position. This may be due to the longer time frame that they generally target, eliminating the reflection of short-term market sentiments in their position.
Other reportable and the non-reportables are generally market followers. They are mostly in a position opposite to that of commercials. One thing that you should always avoid is to follow the trend of non-reportables.
The current COT report can further be compared to the past data and more inferences can be deduced. For example, if you compare the open interest with past data, you would see that it has been falling and has dropped quite low. Also this drop has somewhat stabilized over the past few weeks and it seems to be bottoming up. This indicates that a strong level of support for the gold prices may have been achieved and there are pretty good chances of a trend reversal.
Some takeaways
Now since you have some understanding of how to use COT report, you must keep the following points in mind while using it.
COT report comes with a time delay of 3 days. This is a dampening factor to the uses of the report in framing intraday and very short-term trade strategies.
The data content is excellent and reliable. This makes it a great source of getting market insights.
Further derivations of the COT report in the form index creation or indicators etc can further add to its utility.
Use other tools in combination with COT insights to validate your analysis.
COT report as such is of great value. No wonders why CFTC has to give in to the demands of weekly reports from the market participants, rather than the bi-monthly report that it used to provide in the past. That's all as of now. Happy trading!!!
From quantshare.com
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Gold and Silver Speculator Long Positions Wiped Out
Fri, 26 Apr 2013 21:17:00 GMT
Small speculators, also known as individual investors, have had their net long positions in gold and silver completely wiped out over the last two weeks. As of last Tuesday, these small investors held a mere 133 net long gold contracts, and 2163 net long silver contracts. As recently as September, when we turned cautious on the metals, small speculators held over 60,000 net long gold contracts and 20,000 silver contracts. If the small speculators were to sell anymore gold and silver, they would become net short.
Typically commercial banks manipulate prices on low volume to set the price and then trade at the newly set price in volume. The recent crash in gold and silver began after hours on a Friday, and was hit further by large sell orders Sunday night to take out the well known technical support lines of both metals. Most small retails investors were probably not even contacted by their futures broker. By the time they checked their account the next Monday Morning, either their protective stop orders were triggered or the margin clerk forcefully closed their position. The snowball effect in margin calls and stop loss orders was great enough to last several days.
None of this is surprising. However, we were quite surprised to see that net short positions of commercial traders rose substantially during this period. Typically they would be expected to cover their short positions at lower prices, mopping up the losses of retail investors.
This reveals several important changes to the gold and silver markets:
1) It took an enormous number of short positions added to move the market even on a weekend.
2) The gambit failed, as they were not able to cover these positions in volume after the dump. Nevertheless, as we have been expecting for several years, the commercial traders will be net long before the metals make new highs. But if they can't cover at lower prices, they will begin covering at higher prices as we saw when silver rose from $20 fall 2010 to $50 in spring 2011.
We suspect that the failure of the gold gambit is largely due to the unexpected surge in GLOBAL demand for physical metal. Premiums on bullion products are higher than they were during the 2008 crash, with even junk silver selling at $5-$6 over the paper spot price. This is unprecedented.
The consolidation in gold and silver over the last two years has been painful, especially for mining investors. However, with the prices of the metals at or below production costs, along with shortages of retail bullion products, and zero net long small investors, we are struggling to identify any more sellers. The summer season is typically weak for precious metals, and they could easily back and fill a base over the next six months, however the risk in accumulating physical metals in this price range is very low. We also believe that producing miners with cash holdings represent substantial value at this time.
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Caution Advised in Gold and Silver
Sun, 02 Sep 2012 02:35:00 GMT
Gold and especially silver have succumbed to a long a demoralizing correction over the last 12 to 18 months. The summer doldrums likely marked the bottom of this correction, and the metals have turn the corner higher. However, both gold and silver investors will likely have their resolve tested once again in the coming weeks before the metals are able to break higher.
Precious metals (GLD, SLV), and mining equities surged from their 2008 lows to their 2011 highs in reaction to massive monetary intervention, and an initial surge in inflationary expectations. Although interest rates have remained near zero, and real interest rates are clearly negative, precious metals investors have been disappointed by the ongoing global stagflationary wealth destruction, and the failure of further intervention by policy makers. The Federal Reserve has admitted that the US economy is weaker than desired, yet it has also continually disappointed in announcing a new quantitative easing as it seeks political justification.
The last two years of global policy makers kicking the can down the road, in conjunction with weaker demand from India, has created the environment for a severe correction in gold, silver, and miners. While it hasn't been the most severe in terms of percentage loss, it has likely been the most severe in terms of sentiment. With Europe, India, China, and the US all decelerating at a rapid pace, and the US fiscal cliff returning the political forefront, we believe that we are months away at the most from a turn in monetary policy. Verbal intervention has run its course, and real monetary intervention is a mathematical certainty.
Gold miners(GDX) bottomed in May, and are leading the metals. They are now overbought and could face a sharp correction before breaking out.
Gold and silver may already have begun pricing in future intervention, however commercial banks are not yet on board with the breakout in gold and silver. Net commercial short positions in both gold and silver, at a time when prices are near resistance levels and overbought are indicating that a short and severe correction could be imminent.
Silver has had an especially large spike in commercial short positions over the last three weeks.
The current commercial short positions in silver and gold must be reduced before the metals can break higher. In other words, commercial banks must cover the majority of their short positions. While they could cover as prices rise, history suggests that the most likely scenario is for the commercial banks to take down the price and cover at lower levels. This correction will likely coincide with the realization of a global recession/depression in 2013 and end with the realization of further monetary intervention.
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