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EDITORIALS
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Most Recent Comments Via Twitter ciovaccocapital.com
2013-12-11 16:01:55.0
You can access them
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How To know If The Gold Bull Market Has Ended Gold Silver Worlds
2013-12-11 15:36:25.0
In this article, author Peter de Graaf explains which signs will reveal when the gold bull market will be over.
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Western Governments Try Everything To Preserve Their Fiat Currencies David Levenstein
2013-12-11 15:04:18.0
In spite of a string of strong economic data from the US, the dollar failed to stage a solid rally against other major currencies last week, and the price of gold found support above $1200 an ounce.
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How Markets Are Rigged Against You martenson
2013-12-11 14:44:50.0
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The 'Small' Solution to a Big Tax Problem Marc Faber
2013-12-11 14:12:58.0
If the government levies taxes on landowners, retailers, corporations, and individuals, it is far from certain that the targeted interest groups will actually pay the tax.
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DAILY COMMENATARY FOR DEC. 11 goldscents
2013-12-11 13:14:15.0
Click
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What Big Government Did to Gold Prices Adrian Ash
2013-12-11 13:08:59.0
Paying attention? A very rare year says the early 21st century trend in gold ain't done.
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Jim's Mailbox Jim Sinclair
2013-12-11 12:35:54.0
Dear CIGAs, Here are the items of note that you should be following: JPM continues to vacuum up nearly all of the December Comex deliveries.
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A Repulsive Use of Capitalism Bill Bonner
2013-12-11 12:24:10.0
Uh-oh!The new pope, Francis from the Pampas, has just warned us to beware the "tyranny" of capitalism.
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Jim's Mailbox Jim Sinclair
2013-12-11 12:23:01.0
Dear CIGAs, Here are the items of note that you should be following: JPM continues to vacuum up nearly all of the December Comex deliveries.
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In The News Today Jim Sinclair
2013-12-11 12:23:01.0
Dear CIGAs, Gold is precious but so are some other items.
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Gold Bars "Sold by North Korea to China": Claim Goldbug
2013-12-11 11:06:57.0
Un-named sources give conflicting news on sales of gold bars.
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In The News Today Jim Sinclair
2013-12-11 10:40:15.0
Dear CIGAs, Gold is precious but so are some other items.
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Gold futures cap biggest advance in seven weeks on Dollar drop Joe Richter
2013-12-11 10:09:25.0
Gold capped the biggest advance since mid-October as the dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment.
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Romania's new Mining Law promises full transparency Romania-Insider.com
2013-12-11 10:09:25.0
Mining companies in Romania will not be allowed to use methods which harm the environment and will have to use the most advanced technologies, according to a draft law on the Parliament's voting roll on Tuesday, December 10.
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Marc Faber Predicting U.S. Markets could Rise another 20% from here MarcFaberBlog
2013-12-11 10:09:16.0
'They may go up another 10%, maybe even 20%, but the risks have increased significantly and I don't think equity investors in the U.
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Gold prices rally almost 1% despite Fed taper talk Investing.com
2013-12-11 10:03:02.0
Gold prices were higher on Tuesday, as investors shrugged off concerns the Federal Reserve might start tapering its bond-buying program at its upcoming policy meeting.
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The One Metal Worth Buying in 2014 Greg Guenthner
2013-12-11 10:02:57.0
The list of finalists in the running for 'worst performing asset of the year' is topped by gold, silver and the companies that mine them.
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5 Big-Picture Investing Opportunities for 2014 Byron King
2013-12-11 09:17:48.0
There are numerous hot items on my radar today ' below I'll share with you my five favorites for right now.
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In The News Today Jim Sinclair
2013-12-11 08:57:19.0
Central banks will move goal posts to keep QE forever In my opinion: It's never the right time to stop printing money By Matthew Lynn LONDON (MarketWatch) ' Forget the reforms in China, whether the euro EURUSD +0.
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LATEST NEWS
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Price of silver could double because of Apple
Wed, 11 Dec 2013 12:17:31 -0800
The price of silver could double over the next 12 months...
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What's Next for Gold and Silver?
Wed, 11 Dec 2013 11:04:41 -0800
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Could silver double in price because of... Apple?
Wed, 11 Dec 2013 09:45:47 -0800
Resource specialist and editor of Real Asset Returns thinks that Apple's demand for industrial silver in China could push the price of silver to over $40 in 12 months.
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Telmo Rodriguez
Wed, 11 Dec 2013 08:16:49 -0800
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Gold Prices Trade Sideways as Market Eyes Budget Deal
Wed, 11 Dec 2013 08:08:39 -0800
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Great holiday wine: Consumer Reports
Wed, 11 Dec 2013 08:02:00 -0800
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Gold & Silver Market Morning
Wed, 11 Dec 2013 06:08:51 -0800
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Gold rush: Investors take ??130million out of gold funds amid price concerns
Wed, 11 Dec 2013 03:20:35 -0800
Traditionally gold has been a way to protect your wealth. But the recent economic upswing and rising stock markets means demand has fallen.
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Gold Price to Fall for 8 More Years
Wed, 11 Dec 2013 03:12:07 -0800
We could be just two years into a decade-long commodity bear market, fuelled by the recovering US dollar
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How Strident Asian Gold Demand Should Boost Prices In 2014
Wed, 11 Dec 2013 01:35:47 -0800
If you share my enthusiasm and want to bet on a rising gold price, then exchange-traded funds (ETFs) SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEMKT: GLD.US) and Gold Bullion Securities are a great way to play the gold market. Look East for the future of gold demand The latest quarterly trends report from the World Gold Council (WGC) showed global demand for bars, coins and jewellery surge more than a quarter in the ...
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Bar Bordeaux Opens at the Seafood Brasserie, Millesime
Wed, 11 Dec 2013 00:00:00 -0500
 The handsome bar is now dedicated exclusively to Bordeaux wines.
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A year-end bounce for gold?
Tue, 10 Dec 2013 21:47:50 -0800
Gold could rally 5 percent before year end, one strategist said, bringing a respite for the metal which is on course for its worst year since 1981.
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Wine events this week
Tue, 10 Dec 2013 14:48:01 -0800
ONGOING Palm Beach First-Growth Wine Club, once a month, members meet at a Palm Beach restaurant and split the cost of a first-growth wine and share a meal.
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Wine collectors find a fruitful asset
Tue, 10 Dec 2013 12:01:24 -0800
For those with the money to pour in, wine can be a lucrative investment. If demand from the world's wealthy sours, they can always drink their stocks.
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Wildcat announces positive prefeasibility study results and initial mineral reserve for Hermosa project
Tue, 10 Dec 2013 11:36:00 -0800
VANCOUVER, Dec. 10, 2013 /PRNewswire/ - Wildcat Silver Corporation (TSX: WS) ("Wildcat") announces positive results from its pre-feasibility study for its Hermosa project located in Santa Cruz ...
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Silver miners optimistic on prices despite 'terrible' year in 2013 - PwC survey
Tue, 10 Dec 2013 08:06:55 -0800
Silver has had a terrible year in 2013, but a new survey by PwC says silver miners are optimistic for 2014. Silver started the year trading at around US$32/oz but had fallen to around US$18/oz by mid-year.
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LATEST FROM BLOG
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How to use the Commitment of Traders Report?
Wed, 19 Jun 2013 18:08:00 GMT
The Commitment of Traders report (COT report) is a weekly report, which is issued on every Friday by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report contains the details of the positions of all the market participants. Every report that comes on Friday contains the data as of the preceding Tuesday.
The role of CFTC is to Commodities Future & Options market what SEC is to equity markets. The COT is a very handy, reliable and important report as it has good deal of data related to the market positions and trends of various trader groups. It is very useful in understanding the current and future market movements.
The structure of the COT report is detailed and it provides data segregated into different trader groups. The three main categories being: commercial traders, non-commercial traders and non-reportables.
Commercial Traders: They are the main players of the Commodity future markets. They are essentially hedgers and their trades are for actual delivery of the underlying asset. They have the largest positions in the markets and are big entities like Producers and users/consumers. They have the best knowledge of demand, supply & market movements etc. and enter into contracts as per their requirements and forecasts.
Non-commercial traders: They are also generally big traders but unlike the commercial traders, their positions are mostly for speculative profits. They enter a position with a view to make money and exit the position long before the due dates.
Non-reportables: This is the smallest group of traders and consists of individuals or other small entities that trade on speculative lines. Their holdings are individually too small to be required to report to CFTC and hence the name.
Over the years, CFTC has been providing the report with the aforesaid three categories of traders. But in the recent years, it has started providing disaggregated reports, further categorizing the traders. The picture below illustrates the disaggregated trader categories.
In the above classification, Swap dealers represent the Pension funds, endowments etc. These funds rather than directly trading in the future markets, work through the services of Swap dealers.
Basics of COT report
The COT report is a very valuable source of information, which can be used to get an idea of the future market movements and accordingly device a trading strategy. Let's take a sample COT report of Gold Futures dated 11th June and try to understand the basic data sets and their implications.
A gold future contract is of 100 Troy ounces and the above report is a part of the COT report on metals issued by CFTC on 14th of June, 2013. The report shows the category wise positions as on June 11th. In each category, the long and short positions represent the number of contracts held. The total open interest shows the sum of all contracts (both long & short), that have neither expired nor settled. From the above data, we can get the following perspectives about the current market conditions.
The total open interest is 373,844, which is marginally up by 783 from the previous week. This indicates a bit higher market participation. The benefit of an increased open interest is that a higher number of transactions take place increasing the liquidity. At the same time it also indicates better market conditions for trading and may be a sign of trend reversal.
The net position of Producers/Merchants category is still on the bearish side but compared to last week it shows increase of 3,251 in long contracts. Remember that this group has the best knowledge of the markets and they are bearish with slight movements towards bullish side of the fence. This movement towards long position may be short term or long term. Now if we look at the data of past few weeks, we will observe that there is a gradual increase in the long position of this group. The total extent of their short positions has been decreasing over the time. This may indicate a positive outlook for gold in the future.
The swap dealers reflect the same approach as far as the net position is considered.
Managed Money traders have a contrarian position. This may be due to the longer time frame that they generally target, eliminating the reflection of short-term market sentiments in their position.
Other reportable and the non-reportables are generally market followers. They are mostly in a position opposite to that of commercials. One thing that you should always avoid is to follow the trend of non-reportables.
The current COT report can further be compared to the past data and more inferences can be deduced. For example, if you compare the open interest with past data, you would see that it has been falling and has dropped quite low. Also this drop has somewhat stabilized over the past few weeks and it seems to be bottoming up. This indicates that a strong level of support for the gold prices may have been achieved and there are pretty good chances of a trend reversal.
Some takeaways
Now since you have some understanding of how to use COT report, you must keep the following points in mind while using it.
COT report comes with a time delay of 3 days. This is a dampening factor to the uses of the report in framing intraday and very short-term trade strategies.
The data content is excellent and reliable. This makes it a great source of getting market insights.
Further derivations of the COT report in the form index creation or indicators etc can further add to its utility.
Use other tools in combination with COT insights to validate your analysis.
COT report as such is of great value. No wonders why CFTC has to give in to the demands of weekly reports from the market participants, rather than the bi-monthly report that it used to provide in the past. That's all as of now. Happy trading!!!
From quantshare.com
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Gold and Silver Speculator Long Positions Wiped Out
Fri, 26 Apr 2013 21:17:00 GMT
Small speculators, also known as individual investors, have had their net long positions in gold and silver completely wiped out over the last two weeks. As of last Tuesday, these small investors held a mere 133 net long gold contracts, and 2163 net long silver contracts. As recently as September, when we turned cautious on the metals, small speculators held over 60,000 net long gold contracts and 20,000 silver contracts. If the small speculators were to sell anymore gold and silver, they would become net short.
Typically commercial banks manipulate prices on low volume to set the price and then trade at the newly set price in volume. The recent crash in gold and silver began after hours on a Friday, and was hit further by large sell orders Sunday night to take out the well known technical support lines of both metals. Most small retails investors were probably not even contacted by their futures broker. By the time they checked their account the next Monday Morning, either their protective stop orders were triggered or the margin clerk forcefully closed their position. The snowball effect in margin calls and stop loss orders was great enough to last several days.
None of this is surprising. However, we were quite surprised to see that net short positions of commercial traders rose substantially during this period. Typically they would be expected to cover their short positions at lower prices, mopping up the losses of retail investors.
This reveals several important changes to the gold and silver markets:
1) It took an enormous number of short positions added to move the market even on a weekend.
2) The gambit failed, as they were not able to cover these positions in volume after the dump. Nevertheless, as we have been expecting for several years, the commercial traders will be net long before the metals make new highs. But if they can't cover at lower prices, they will begin covering at higher prices as we saw when silver rose from $20 fall 2010 to $50 in spring 2011.
We suspect that the failure of the gold gambit is largely due to the unexpected surge in GLOBAL demand for physical metal. Premiums on bullion products are higher than they were during the 2008 crash, with even junk silver selling at $5-$6 over the paper spot price. This is unprecedented.
The consolidation in gold and silver over the last two years has been painful, especially for mining investors. However, with the prices of the metals at or below production costs, along with shortages of retail bullion products, and zero net long small investors, we are struggling to identify any more sellers. The summer season is typically weak for precious metals, and they could easily back and fill a base over the next six months, however the risk in accumulating physical metals in this price range is very low. We also believe that producing miners with cash holdings represent substantial value at this time.
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Caution Advised in Gold and Silver
Sun, 02 Sep 2012 02:35:00 GMT
Gold and especially silver have succumbed to a long a demoralizing correction over the last 12 to 18 months. The summer doldrums likely marked the bottom of this correction, and the metals have turn the corner higher. However, both gold and silver investors will likely have their resolve tested once again in the coming weeks before the metals are able to break higher.
Precious metals (GLD, SLV), and mining equities surged from their 2008 lows to their 2011 highs in reaction to massive monetary intervention, and an initial surge in inflationary expectations. Although interest rates have remained near zero, and real interest rates are clearly negative, precious metals investors have been disappointed by the ongoing global stagflationary wealth destruction, and the failure of further intervention by policy makers. The Federal Reserve has admitted that the US economy is weaker than desired, yet it has also continually disappointed in announcing a new quantitative easing as it seeks political justification.
The last two years of global policy makers kicking the can down the road, in conjunction with weaker demand from India, has created the environment for a severe correction in gold, silver, and miners. While it hasn't been the most severe in terms of percentage loss, it has likely been the most severe in terms of sentiment. With Europe, India, China, and the US all decelerating at a rapid pace, and the US fiscal cliff returning the political forefront, we believe that we are months away at the most from a turn in monetary policy. Verbal intervention has run its course, and real monetary intervention is a mathematical certainty.
Gold miners(GDX) bottomed in May, and are leading the metals. They are now overbought and could face a sharp correction before breaking out.
Gold and silver may already have begun pricing in future intervention, however commercial banks are not yet on board with the breakout in gold and silver. Net commercial short positions in both gold and silver, at a time when prices are near resistance levels and overbought are indicating that a short and severe correction could be imminent.
Silver has had an especially large spike in commercial short positions over the last three weeks.
The current commercial short positions in silver and gold must be reduced before the metals can break higher. In other words, commercial banks must cover the majority of their short positions. While they could cover as prices rise, history suggests that the most likely scenario is for the commercial banks to take down the price and cover at lower levels. This correction will likely coincide with the realization of a global recession/depression in 2013 and end with the realization of further monetary intervention.
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