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EDITORIALS
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The Most Important Gold Chart in the World Greg Guenthner
2013-12-06 10:46:35.0
Ever since gold broke below critical support back in April, you've been inundated with statistics, price targets and countless charts.
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China Bull Prepares to Charge Frank Holmes
2013-12-06 09:04:19.0
If the sweeping economic reforms planned by Chinese leaders during the Third Plenum can be our guide, it looks to be a promising decade for global investors.
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Krugman's Economic Painkillers, provided only temporary relief of the symptoms of Economic illness MarcFaberBlog
2013-12-06 08:51:33.0
So, maybe Krugman's economic painkillers, which provided only temporary relief of the symptoms of economic illness, worked for a while in the case of Mexico, but they created a huge problem for Asia.
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Gold, silver fall as traders expect Fed exit The Associated Press
2013-12-06 05:09:47.0
The latest signs of strength in the U.
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Forget Gold: demand favors this precious metal Jim Woods
2013-12-06 04:57:12.0
Gold is getting hammered, and the pain in the sector is putting gold bulls in a panic.
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Pit wall collapse at WA Gold mine Vicky Validakis
2013-12-06 04:44:34.0
A pit wall collapse at Ramelius Resources' Western Queen South gold mine has forced the company into its second trading halt in less than a month.
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Three miners killed at Barrick's PNG Gold mine Alex Heber
2013-12-06 04:25:42.0
At least three miners have been killed after a confrontation broke out at the Porgera gold mine in Papua New Guinea.
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Newmont Mining is selling off Nevada mine for $83 million Mark Harden
2013-12-06 03:54:06.0
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Paper Gold traders overpowering physical holders Austin Kiddle
2013-12-06 03:47:49.0
The U.
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Gold Jumps After Strong ADP Jobs Data, 'Short-Covering' Likely BullionVault
2013-12-06 02:06:58.0
The PRICE of gold fell hard Thursday lunchtime in London, giving back all of yesterday's??sudden 3.
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The Very Real Danger of a Failure in the Gold Market martenson
2013-12-06 01:42:50.0
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There Is Too Little Gold In The West martenson
2013-12-06 01:42:50.0
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Hong Kong's Stock Exchange Redmond W
2013-12-06 01:30:14.0
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Mismatch of Assets and Liabilities MarcFaberBlog
2013-12-05 22:33:08.0
The US enjoys a huge advantage by having the ability to borrow in US dollars against US dollar assets, which doesn't lead to a mismatch of assets and liabilities.
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Eric Sprott: The Curious Case For Silver Gold Silver Worlds
2013-12-05 18:51:33.0
This is a guest post by David Franklin from Sprott's Thoughts:It has been a difficult year for silver investors with the metal falling by 36% year-to-date.
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How Much Damage To Stocks From Taper Fears? ciovaccocapital.com
2013-12-05 18:45:07.0
Good News, Bad News
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Do Not Count On Gold To Get Rich, It Will Help People Survive Gold Silver Worlds
2013-12-05 18:19:58.0
This is a guest post from??
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Corvus Gold: More High-Grade Intercepts at Yellow Jacket Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
2013-12-05 17:40:44.0
Today, Corvus Gold reported more outstanding intercepts at Yellow Jacket, the high-grade discovery at its North Bullfrog project in Nevada.
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Marc Faber : World Central Banks Are Going To Bankrupt The World! MarcFaberBlog
2013-12-05 16:19:19.0
Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland.
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Precious Metals Update Tiho Brkan
2013-12-05 16:05:33.0
Throughout October, I was regularly updating the blog with short term price action in various asset classes, which represented trading opportunities.
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LATEST NEWS
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Gold: the not-so precious metal of 2013
Fri, 06 Dec 2013 08:20:07 -0800
Gold looks poised for its first annual fall in 14 years, with bullion prices down 26 percent since the start of 2013.
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How Does Wine Affect My Esophagus? Insights On Marketing In China
Fri, 06 Dec 2013 08:08:53 -0800
Marketing wine in China is a challenge, but increases in education and mobile purchases indicate demand. Some exporters attract wine consumers by speaking the language of tea.
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Price & Time: Important Cyclical Pivot Here In Gold
Fri, 06 Dec 2013 08:05:00 -0800
Price & Time: Important Cyclical Pivot Here In Gold
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The Gold Price is being held back by one Government
Fri, 06 Dec 2013 07:23:40 -0800
In 2013 the Indian Government raised import duties to 15% on gold. It then prevented the import of gold unless 20% of that gold was exported. Now this is blocked too. What impact has this had on the gold price?
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Gold & Silver Market Morning: December 6, 2013
Fri, 06 Dec 2013 06:53:44 -0800
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Gold Bearish Outlook Extended as Price Nears $1,200: Commodities
Fri, 06 Dec 2013 05:00:30 -0800
Gold analysts are bearish for a third week, the longest stretch since February 2010, as prices approach $1,200 an ounce and a stronger U.S. economy improves the chance that the Federal Reserve will reduce fiscal stimulus.
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Howard Gold's No-Nonsense Investing: What Keynes can teach us about investing
Fri, 06 Dec 2013 03:42:44 -0800
John Maynard Keynes pioneered many of the investing concepts we now take for granted, writes Howard Gold.
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The gold price is looking interesting again
Fri, 06 Dec 2013 03:41:51 -0800
So far, the gold price has defied chart analysis of an impending rally, says John C Burford. But that could all be about to change. The post The gold price is looking interesting again was first published on MoneyWeek .
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SHOP LOCAL: The Wine Country In Signal Hill
Fri, 06 Dec 2013 03:18:00 -0800
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Wine prices set certain menus apart - Fri, 06 Dec 2013 PST
Fri, 06 Dec 2013 00:20:19 -0800
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Gold Prices Plummet as Fed Taper Fears Remain in Play
Thu, 05 Dec 2013 08:09:42 -0800
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Gold prices were tumbling Thursday morning and erasing Wednesday's gains as traders continued to bet against the yellow metal on better-than-expected U.S. economic growth. Headline gross domestic product for the third quarter showed 3.6% growth, which was an upward revision from the prior reading of 2.8% and higher than economists' expectations of 3.1%, according to a ...
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Best Holiday Gifts For Wine & Spirits Lovers 2013
Thu, 05 Dec 2013 06:12:23 -0800
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Gold & Silver Market Morning
Thu, 05 Dec 2013 06:08:51 -0800
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Golden Arrow Announces Positive Preliminary Economic Assessment for the Chinchillas Silver Project, with $98.5M After ...
Thu, 05 Dec 2013 05:00:00 -0800
Golden Arrow Resources Corporation (TSX-V: GRG, FRA: GAC (WKN: A0B6XQ), "Golden Arrow" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the results of a Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA") ...
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Launched Today: the Wotwine App That Revolutionises Supermarket Wine Shopping
Thu, 05 Dec 2013 01:00:00 -0800
wotwine launches its ground-breaking free supermarket wine app that gives consumers the definitive guide to supermarket wine. Nine out of ten retail bottles we drink in the UK are bought from major supermarket chains, with 60 per cent of those on discount. Comprising some of the most authoritative figures in the British wine industry, wotwine's tasting team has spent the last six months ...
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Barrick shakes up board, new chairman muses on hedging
Wed, 04 Dec 2013 16:08:24 -0800
Barrick Gold Corp , under fire for missteps in a tough market, started to address investor demands for a more independent board on Wednesday, by replacing two directors close to its departing founder with a pair of mining industry experts. Incoming chairman John Thornton said he may look at hedging Barrick's exposure to the price of gold and made it clear that over the long term, the world's ...
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LATEST FROM BLOG
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How to use the Commitment of Traders Report?
Wed, 19 Jun 2013 18:08:00 GMT
The Commitment of Traders report (COT report) is a weekly report, which is issued on every Friday by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report contains the details of the positions of all the market participants. Every report that comes on Friday contains the data as of the preceding Tuesday.
The role of CFTC is to Commodities Future & Options market what SEC is to equity markets. The COT is a very handy, reliable and important report as it has good deal of data related to the market positions and trends of various trader groups. It is very useful in understanding the current and future market movements.
The structure of the COT report is detailed and it provides data segregated into different trader groups. The three main categories being: commercial traders, non-commercial traders and non-reportables.
Commercial Traders: They are the main players of the Commodity future markets. They are essentially hedgers and their trades are for actual delivery of the underlying asset. They have the largest positions in the markets and are big entities like Producers and users/consumers. They have the best knowledge of demand, supply & market movements etc. and enter into contracts as per their requirements and forecasts.
Non-commercial traders: They are also generally big traders but unlike the commercial traders, their positions are mostly for speculative profits. They enter a position with a view to make money and exit the position long before the due dates.
Non-reportables: This is the smallest group of traders and consists of individuals or other small entities that trade on speculative lines. Their holdings are individually too small to be required to report to CFTC and hence the name.
Over the years, CFTC has been providing the report with the aforesaid three categories of traders. But in the recent years, it has started providing disaggregated reports, further categorizing the traders. The picture below illustrates the disaggregated trader categories.
In the above classification, Swap dealers represent the Pension funds, endowments etc. These funds rather than directly trading in the future markets, work through the services of Swap dealers.
Basics of COT report
The COT report is a very valuable source of information, which can be used to get an idea of the future market movements and accordingly device a trading strategy. Let's take a sample COT report of Gold Futures dated 11th June and try to understand the basic data sets and their implications.
A gold future contract is of 100 Troy ounces and the above report is a part of the COT report on metals issued by CFTC on 14th of June, 2013. The report shows the category wise positions as on June 11th. In each category, the long and short positions represent the number of contracts held. The total open interest shows the sum of all contracts (both long & short), that have neither expired nor settled. From the above data, we can get the following perspectives about the current market conditions.
The total open interest is 373,844, which is marginally up by 783 from the previous week. This indicates a bit higher market participation. The benefit of an increased open interest is that a higher number of transactions take place increasing the liquidity. At the same time it also indicates better market conditions for trading and may be a sign of trend reversal.
The net position of Producers/Merchants category is still on the bearish side but compared to last week it shows increase of 3,251 in long contracts. Remember that this group has the best knowledge of the markets and they are bearish with slight movements towards bullish side of the fence. This movement towards long position may be short term or long term. Now if we look at the data of past few weeks, we will observe that there is a gradual increase in the long position of this group. The total extent of their short positions has been decreasing over the time. This may indicate a positive outlook for gold in the future.
The swap dealers reflect the same approach as far as the net position is considered.
Managed Money traders have a contrarian position. This may be due to the longer time frame that they generally target, eliminating the reflection of short-term market sentiments in their position.
Other reportable and the non-reportables are generally market followers. They are mostly in a position opposite to that of commercials. One thing that you should always avoid is to follow the trend of non-reportables.
The current COT report can further be compared to the past data and more inferences can be deduced. For example, if you compare the open interest with past data, you would see that it has been falling and has dropped quite low. Also this drop has somewhat stabilized over the past few weeks and it seems to be bottoming up. This indicates that a strong level of support for the gold prices may have been achieved and there are pretty good chances of a trend reversal.
Some takeaways
Now since you have some understanding of how to use COT report, you must keep the following points in mind while using it.
COT report comes with a time delay of 3 days. This is a dampening factor to the uses of the report in framing intraday and very short-term trade strategies.
The data content is excellent and reliable. This makes it a great source of getting market insights.
Further derivations of the COT report in the form index creation or indicators etc can further add to its utility.
Use other tools in combination with COT insights to validate your analysis.
COT report as such is of great value. No wonders why CFTC has to give in to the demands of weekly reports from the market participants, rather than the bi-monthly report that it used to provide in the past. That's all as of now. Happy trading!!!
From quantshare.com
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Gold and Silver Speculator Long Positions Wiped Out
Fri, 26 Apr 2013 21:17:00 GMT
Small speculators, also known as individual investors, have had their net long positions in gold and silver completely wiped out over the last two weeks. As of last Tuesday, these small investors held a mere 133 net long gold contracts, and 2163 net long silver contracts. As recently as September, when we turned cautious on the metals, small speculators held over 60,000 net long gold contracts and 20,000 silver contracts. If the small speculators were to sell anymore gold and silver, they would become net short.
Typically commercial banks manipulate prices on low volume to set the price and then trade at the newly set price in volume. The recent crash in gold and silver began after hours on a Friday, and was hit further by large sell orders Sunday night to take out the well known technical support lines of both metals. Most small retails investors were probably not even contacted by their futures broker. By the time they checked their account the next Monday Morning, either their protective stop orders were triggered or the margin clerk forcefully closed their position. The snowball effect in margin calls and stop loss orders was great enough to last several days.
None of this is surprising. However, we were quite surprised to see that net short positions of commercial traders rose substantially during this period. Typically they would be expected to cover their short positions at lower prices, mopping up the losses of retail investors.
This reveals several important changes to the gold and silver markets:
1) It took an enormous number of short positions added to move the market even on a weekend.
2) The gambit failed, as they were not able to cover these positions in volume after the dump. Nevertheless, as we have been expecting for several years, the commercial traders will be net long before the metals make new highs. But if they can't cover at lower prices, they will begin covering at higher prices as we saw when silver rose from $20 fall 2010 to $50 in spring 2011.
We suspect that the failure of the gold gambit is largely due to the unexpected surge in GLOBAL demand for physical metal. Premiums on bullion products are higher than they were during the 2008 crash, with even junk silver selling at $5-$6 over the paper spot price. This is unprecedented.
The consolidation in gold and silver over the last two years has been painful, especially for mining investors. However, with the prices of the metals at or below production costs, along with shortages of retail bullion products, and zero net long small investors, we are struggling to identify any more sellers. The summer season is typically weak for precious metals, and they could easily back and fill a base over the next six months, however the risk in accumulating physical metals in this price range is very low. We also believe that producing miners with cash holdings represent substantial value at this time.
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Caution Advised in Gold and Silver
Sun, 02 Sep 2012 02:35:00 GMT
Gold and especially silver have succumbed to a long a demoralizing correction over the last 12 to 18 months. The summer doldrums likely marked the bottom of this correction, and the metals have turn the corner higher. However, both gold and silver investors will likely have their resolve tested once again in the coming weeks before the metals are able to break higher.
Precious metals (GLD, SLV), and mining equities surged from their 2008 lows to their 2011 highs in reaction to massive monetary intervention, and an initial surge in inflationary expectations. Although interest rates have remained near zero, and real interest rates are clearly negative, precious metals investors have been disappointed by the ongoing global stagflationary wealth destruction, and the failure of further intervention by policy makers. The Federal Reserve has admitted that the US economy is weaker than desired, yet it has also continually disappointed in announcing a new quantitative easing as it seeks political justification.
The last two years of global policy makers kicking the can down the road, in conjunction with weaker demand from India, has created the environment for a severe correction in gold, silver, and miners. While it hasn't been the most severe in terms of percentage loss, it has likely been the most severe in terms of sentiment. With Europe, India, China, and the US all decelerating at a rapid pace, and the US fiscal cliff returning the political forefront, we believe that we are months away at the most from a turn in monetary policy. Verbal intervention has run its course, and real monetary intervention is a mathematical certainty.
Gold miners(GDX) bottomed in May, and are leading the metals. They are now overbought and could face a sharp correction before breaking out.
Gold and silver may already have begun pricing in future intervention, however commercial banks are not yet on board with the breakout in gold and silver. Net commercial short positions in both gold and silver, at a time when prices are near resistance levels and overbought are indicating that a short and severe correction could be imminent.
Silver has had an especially large spike in commercial short positions over the last three weeks.
The current commercial short positions in silver and gold must be reduced before the metals can break higher. In other words, commercial banks must cover the majority of their short positions. While they could cover as prices rise, history suggests that the most likely scenario is for the commercial banks to take down the price and cover at lower levels. This correction will likely coincide with the realization of a global recession/depression in 2013 and end with the realization of further monetary intervention.
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