|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
EDITORIALS
|
| |
|
Commitment of Traders Report: JP Morgan Still Short Silver Around 18,500 Contracts Casey Research
2015-03-02 17:03:21.0
This is an excerpt from Ed Steer's
| |
|
|
| |
|
Daily Digest 3/2 - A Week On My Bike, How Much More Economic Pain Can Vladimir Putin Take? martenson
2015-03-02 16:55:27.0
| |
|
|
| |
|
IPO or BUST? Here's Why You Need to Know the Difference? Greg Guenthner
2015-03-02 16:11:13.0
This post
| |
|
|
| |
|
Central Banks are going to Bankrupt The World MarcFaberBlog
2015-03-02 12:42:59.0
From King World News:Marc Faber: Central banks ?are going to bankrupt the world'Financial pundit Marc Faber, author of the popular contrarian ?Gloom, Boom and Doom Report,? tells King World News.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Events Impacting Gold And Silver In The Week Of March 2nd Gold Silver Worlds
2015-03-02 10:23:20.0
In this article, we summarize which events in the week ahead could impact the
| |
|
|
| |
|
Callinex Mines: A 25-Cent-a-Share Company, Led By A Mining Hall of Fame Legend Gold Silver Worlds
2015-03-02 10:04:32.0
[Ed.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Inflation: Will It Remain Dormant Or Escalate In Coming Years? Lorimer Wilson
2015-03-02 07:38:57.0
According to the pricing of TIPS and Treasuries, the bond
| |
|
|
| |
|
Newmont settles suit in 2011 death at Nevada gold mine Scott Sonner
2015-03-02 05:09:19.0
A lawyer for the Utah family of a contract worker at a Nevada gold mine that paid more than $100,000 in U.
| |
|
|
| |
|
BEE group in bid to scrap R664m Lonmin deal Loni Prinsloo
2015-03-02 04:56:49.0
Platinum miner
| |
|
|
| |
|
Gold hits 2-week high as rate cut seen spurring Chinese buying Manolo Serapio Jr.
2015-03-02 04:19:12.0
Gold rose to its highest level in nearly two weeks on Monday, backed by firm Chinese demand after a weekend interest rate cut in China aimed at shoring up the economy, which some analysts said could also benefit bullion.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Technical Analysis: Expect Contratrend Rallies In Most Metals Gold Silver Worlds
2015-03-01 18:14:55.0
The following is an excerpt from Yamada's latest monthly update for premium subscribers, released today.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Which Countries Have the Most Gold Reserves? Lorimer Wilson
2015-03-01 16:26:21.0
Countries hold gold as a precaution to safeguard themselves against inflation, loans, debt and economic disasters and in the summer of 2014 just under 32,000 tonnes were held globally.
| |
|
|
| |
|
The Euro to strengthen after Grexit MarcFaberBlog
2015-03-01 16:21:13.0
?I believe it will strengthen not weaken because the Euro needs strong countries not weak countries.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Noonan: ?Gold & Silver ? Insanity Prevails; PMs Without Direction? Lorimer Wilson
2015-03-01 16:20:03.0
It is futile to try and call for when a collapse of the ?dollar?
| |
|
|
| |
|
iGold: What Will April Introduction of Apple's SmartWatch Do For the Price of Gold? Lorimer Wilson
2015-03-01 15:54:57.0
This April Apple will be venturing into the latest wearable
| |
|
|
| |
|
Gold Going to $4-5,000/ozt. ? Even More ? By 2020? These Pundits Say So Lorimer Wilson
2015-03-01 15:42:24.0
Over the years only 42 pundits have been bold enough to provide a specific date as to
| |
|
|
| |
|
Weekly Review For Gold Investors ? February 27th Gold Silver Worlds
2015-02-28 22:05:29.0
In his weekly market review, Frank Holmes of the
| |
|
|
| |
|
Negative Interest Rates and Precious Metals bullionbullscanada
2015-02-28 20:48:35.0
For many years; one of the standard lines of the Corporate media in its
| |
|
|
| |
|
Global Insanity Prevails, But Precious Metals Remain Directionless Michael Noonan
2015-02-28 19:53:04.0
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Daily Digest 2/28 - Net Neutrality Passes In Landmark FCC Decision, China Cuts Rates Again martenson
2015-02-28 18:00:07.0
| |
|
|
|
| | |
LATEST NEWS
|
| |
|
Gold prices fall on the rising US dollar
Wed, 04 Mar 2015 05:55:25 -0800
Gold prices are trading almost 37% lower than they were in August 2011. The drop in gold prices was due to the strong US dollar.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Gold price recovers marginally on seasonal demand
Wed, 04 Mar 2015 02:19:15 -0800
Silver, however, remained under selling pressure and lost Rs 200 at Rs 36,800 per kg.
| |
|
|
| |
|
KATHY SMITH: New law allows you to expand your wine journey
Wed, 04 Mar 2015 02:00:00 -0800
So many choices, so little time! California alone has over 3,000 wineries. The United States, more than 8,000. That?s domestic wine only; now imagine how many wineries there are in Europe?
| |
|
|
| |
|
Fresnillo shares tank as 2014 profits plunge 40%
Wed, 04 Mar 2015 00:05:00 -0800
Mexican precious metals producer Fresnillo said it delivered a "reasonable performance" in 2014 in the face of lower silver and gold prices as profits plunged, sending the shares firmly into ...
| |
|
|
| |
|
Miner Fresnillo's full-year profit falls on low silver, gold prices
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 23:18:04 -0800
Precious metals miner Fresnillo Plc said its full-year pretax profit dropped 40 percent, hurt by falling gold and silver prices. The company's pretax profit fell to $251.1 million in the year ended Dec. ...
| |
|
|
| |
|
Generous bids pour out at 2015 Rodeo Uncorked Champion Wine Auction
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 21:33:07 -0800
The 2015 Rodeo Uncorked! Champion Wine Auction and Dinner overflowed with generous bids from supportive buyers of the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. Approximately 900 people interested in purchasing the award-winning wines attended the auction Sunday, March 1 at NRG Center.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Gold & Silver Market Morning
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 21:10:20 -0800
Gold Today ? New York closed at $1,211.1 up $2.70. Asia took the gold price up to $1,221 before London pulled it down to $1,214. London then Fixed the gold price at $1,216.75 up $11.75 and in the euro, at ?1,084.931 up ?11.339, while the euro was almost unchanged at $1.1215. Ahead of New York?s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,213.60 and in the euro at ?1,081.01.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Gold ready for a bounce?
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 21:09:07 -0800
The latest Commitment of Traders report shows that large speculators in the managed money category have got their positions down to a point where we could now see a bounce in the gold price.
| |
|
|
| |
|
The Bank of England and the London Gold Fixings in the 1980s
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 21:05:54 -0800
With the current structure of the London gold price fixings disappearing in the very near future, there is an unusual story that I?d like to share about the gold fixings.
| |
|
|
| |
|
1973 EU CB?s Traded Gold In Secret At Free Market Price
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 20:57:23 -0800
Soon after the inception of the Bretton Woods system in 1944 the US needed to suppress the price of gold because they printed far more dollars than they had gold to back it up, finally the suppression failed in 1968 when the London Gold Pool collapsed.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Campaign set to raise South Africa's bottled wine exports
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 15:47:06 -0800
A new initiative aims to see more bottled wines exported from South Africa in a bid to raise the country's reputation as a premium producer and promote job creation.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Vista Gold Corp. Announces 2014 Results and Provides Update on Recent Activities
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 15:44:00 -0800
Vista Gold Corp. Announces 2014 Results and Provides Update on Recent Activities
| |
|
|
| |
|
Silver Wheaton?s ?train wreck? $800-million bought deal is getting snubbed
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 15:34:01 -0800
The silver mining company's stock traded below the offer price all day Tuesday, and sources tell the Financial Post a very large portion remains unsold
| |
|
|
| |
|
Gold Price-Still Waiting on Either 1177 Test or Above 1245
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 13:29:00 -0800
Gold Price-Still Waiting on Either 1177 Test or Above 1245
| |
|
|
| |
|
Price Changes Threaten Lucrative BC Wine Sector (in Opinion)
Tue, 03 Mar 2015 08:16:56 -0800
A $1-billion industry is growing 'very very nervous.'
| |
|
|
| |
|
Silver Wheaton takes new gold stream stake in Vale mine
Mon, 02 Mar 2015 14:30:24 -0800
Silver Wheaton Corp said on Monday that it would pay $900 million for the right to buy an additional 25 percent of future gold production from Vale SA's Salobo mine in Brazil, boosting its 2015 gold output to 230,000 ounces. Silver Wheaton, which pays a lump sum up front to secure future precious metal production, spent $1.33 billion in 2013 for its initial 25 percent gold stream at Salobo ...
| |
|
|
|
|
| | |
LATEST FROM BLOG
|
| |
|
How to use the Commitment of Traders Report?
Wed, 19 Jun 2013 18:08:00 GMT
The Commitment of Traders report (COT report) is a weekly report, which is issued on every Friday by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report contains the details of the positions of all the market participants. Every report that comes on Friday contains the data as of the preceding Tuesday.
The role of CFTC is to Commodities Future & Options market what SEC is to equity markets. The COT is a very handy, reliable and important report as it has good deal of data related to the market positions and trends of various trader groups. It is very useful in understanding the current and future market movements.
The structure of the COT report is detailed and it provides data segregated into different trader groups. The three main categories being: commercial traders, non-commercial traders and non-reportables.
Commercial Traders: They are the main players of the Commodity future markets. They are essentially hedgers and their trades are for actual delivery of the underlying asset. They have the largest positions in the markets and are big entities like Producers and users/consumers. They have the best knowledge of demand, supply & market movements etc. and enter into contracts as per their requirements and forecasts.
Non-commercial traders: They are also generally big traders but unlike the commercial traders, their positions are mostly for speculative profits. They enter a position with a view to make money and exit the position long before the due dates.
Non-reportables: This is the smallest group of traders and consists of individuals or other small entities that trade on speculative lines. Their holdings are individually too small to be required to report to CFTC and hence the name.
Over the years, CFTC has been providing the report with the aforesaid three categories of traders. But in the recent years, it has started providing disaggregated reports, further categorizing the traders. The picture below illustrates the disaggregated trader categories.
In the above classification, Swap dealers represent the Pension funds, endowments etc. These funds rather than directly trading in the future markets, work through the services of Swap dealers.
Basics of COT report
The COT report is a very valuable source of information, which can be used to get an idea of the future market movements and accordingly device a trading strategy. Let's take a sample COT report of Gold Futures dated 11th June and try to understand the basic data sets and their implications.
A gold future contract is of 100 Troy ounces and the above report is a part of the COT report on metals issued by CFTC on 14th of June, 2013. The report shows the category wise positions as on June 11th. In each category, the long and short positions represent the number of contracts held. The total open interest shows the sum of all contracts (both long & short), that have neither expired nor settled. From the above data, we can get the following perspectives about the current market conditions.
The total open interest is 373,844, which is marginally up by 783 from the previous week. This indicates a bit higher market participation. The benefit of an increased open interest is that a higher number of transactions take place increasing the liquidity. At the same time it also indicates better market conditions for trading and may be a sign of trend reversal.
The net position of Producers/Merchants category is still on the bearish side but compared to last week it shows increase of 3,251 in long contracts. Remember that this group has the best knowledge of the markets and they are bearish with slight movements towards bullish side of the fence. This movement towards long position may be short term or long term. Now if we look at the data of past few weeks, we will observe that there is a gradual increase in the long position of this group. The total extent of their short positions has been decreasing over the time. This may indicate a positive outlook for gold in the future.
The swap dealers reflect the same approach as far as the net position is considered.
Managed Money traders have a contrarian position. This may be due to the longer time frame that they generally target, eliminating the reflection of short-term market sentiments in their position.
Other reportable and the non-reportables are generally market followers. They are mostly in a position opposite to that of commercials. One thing that you should always avoid is to follow the trend of non-reportables.
The current COT report can further be compared to the past data and more inferences can be deduced. For example, if you compare the open interest with past data, you would see that it has been falling and has dropped quite low. Also this drop has somewhat stabilized over the past few weeks and it seems to be bottoming up. This indicates that a strong level of support for the gold prices may have been achieved and there are pretty good chances of a trend reversal.
Some takeaways
Now since you have some understanding of how to use COT report, you must keep the following points in mind while using it.
COT report comes with a time delay of 3 days. This is a dampening factor to the uses of the report in framing intraday and very short-term trade strategies.
The data content is excellent and reliable. This makes it a great source of getting market insights.
Further derivations of the COT report in the form index creation or indicators etc can further add to its utility.
Use other tools in combination with COT insights to validate your analysis.
COT report as such is of great value. No wonders why CFTC has to give in to the demands of weekly reports from the market participants, rather than the bi-monthly report that it used to provide in the past. That's all as of now. Happy trading!!!
From quantshare.com
| |
|
|
| |
|
Gold and Silver Speculator Long Positions Wiped Out
Fri, 26 Apr 2013 21:17:00 GMT
Small speculators, also known as individual investors, have had their net long positions in gold and silver completely wiped out over the last two weeks. As of last Tuesday, these small investors held a mere 133 net long gold contracts, and 2163 net long silver contracts. As recently as September, when we turned cautious on the metals, small speculators held over 60,000 net long gold contracts and 20,000 silver contracts. If the small speculators were to sell anymore gold and silver, they would become net short.
Typically commercial banks manipulate prices on low volume to set the price and then trade at the newly set price in volume. The recent crash in gold and silver began after hours on a Friday, and was hit further by large sell orders Sunday night to take out the well known technical support lines of both metals. Most small retails investors were probably not even contacted by their futures broker. By the time they checked their account the next Monday Morning, either their protective stop orders were triggered or the margin clerk forcefully closed their position. The snowball effect in margin calls and stop loss orders was great enough to last several days.
None of this is surprising. However, we were quite surprised to see that net short positions of commercial traders rose substantially during this period. Typically they would be expected to cover their short positions at lower prices, mopping up the losses of retail investors.
This reveals several important changes to the gold and silver markets:
1) It took an enormous number of short positions added to move the market even on a weekend.
2) The gambit failed, as they were not able to cover these positions in volume after the dump. Nevertheless, as we have been expecting for several years, the commercial traders will be net long before the metals make new highs. But if they can't cover at lower prices, they will begin covering at higher prices as we saw when silver rose from $20 fall 2010 to $50 in spring 2011.
We suspect that the failure of the gold gambit is largely due to the unexpected surge in GLOBAL demand for physical metal. Premiums on bullion products are higher than they were during the 2008 crash, with even junk silver selling at $5-$6 over the paper spot price. This is unprecedented.
The consolidation in gold and silver over the last two years has been painful, especially for mining investors. However, with the prices of the metals at or below production costs, along with shortages of retail bullion products, and zero net long small investors, we are struggling to identify any more sellers. The summer season is typically weak for precious metals, and they could easily back and fill a base over the next six months, however the risk in accumulating physical metals in this price range is very low. We also believe that producing miners with cash holdings represent substantial value at this time.
| |
|
|
| |
|
Caution Advised in Gold and Silver
Sun, 02 Sep 2012 02:35:00 GMT
Gold and especially silver have succumbed to a long a demoralizing correction over the last 12 to 18 months. The summer doldrums likely marked the bottom of this correction, and the metals have turn the corner higher. However, both gold and silver investors will likely have their resolve tested once again in the coming weeks before the metals are able to break higher.
Precious metals (GLD, SLV), and mining equities surged from their 2008 lows to their 2011 highs in reaction to massive monetary intervention, and an initial surge in inflationary expectations. Although interest rates have remained near zero, and real interest rates are clearly negative, precious metals investors have been disappointed by the ongoing global stagflationary wealth destruction, and the failure of further intervention by policy makers. The Federal Reserve has admitted that the US economy is weaker than desired, yet it has also continually disappointed in announcing a new quantitative easing as it seeks political justification.
The last two years of global policy makers kicking the can down the road, in conjunction with weaker demand from India, has created the environment for a severe correction in gold, silver, and miners. While it hasn't been the most severe in terms of percentage loss, it has likely been the most severe in terms of sentiment. With Europe, India, China, and the US all decelerating at a rapid pace, and the US fiscal cliff returning the political forefront, we believe that we are months away at the most from a turn in monetary policy. Verbal intervention has run its course, and real monetary intervention is a mathematical certainty.
Gold miners(GDX) bottomed in May, and are leading the metals. They are now overbought and could face a sharp correction before breaking out.
Gold and silver may already have begun pricing in future intervention, however commercial banks are not yet on board with the breakout in gold and silver. Net commercial short positions in both gold and silver, at a time when prices are near resistance levels and overbought are indicating that a short and severe correction could be imminent.
Silver has had an especially large spike in commercial short positions over the last three weeks.
The current commercial short positions in silver and gold must be reduced before the metals can break higher. In other words, commercial banks must cover the majority of their short positions. While they could cover as prices rise, history suggests that the most likely scenario is for the commercial banks to take down the price and cover at lower levels. This correction will likely coincide with the realization of a global recession/depression in 2013 and end with the realization of further monetary intervention.
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
