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EDITORIALS
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Buy Gold as "World Backs Away" from Dollar: Rickards Miguel Perez-Santalla
2014-04-19 12:38:48.0
Investors should put 10-20% into bullion and adopt their own Gold Standard.
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What's the Difference Between 1 Gold Karat, 1 Diamond Carat and 1 Troy Ounce? Lorimer Wilson
2014-04-19 11:53:12.0
What's the difference between 1 troy ounce of gold and 1 (regular) ounce? What's the
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The Pros & Cons of Buying Gold Bars vs. Ingots vs. Coins Lorimer Wilson
2014-04-19 11:46:29.0
It is during difficult times [such as these when] quantitative easing and currency
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Gold Dropping to $900 & Silver to $15 By End of June Before Going Parabolic! Lorimer Wilson
2014-04-19 11:16:55.0
Back in early May, 2013, I correctly forecast the lows in gold & silver which occurred 2 months later.
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Buy Silver Instead of Gold! Here's Why Lorimer Wilson
2014-04-19 11:10:06.0
We are at the beginning of a major shift out of paper assets into real assets [and]??those that are starting to
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Marc Faber : The Old World Order is Over MarcFaberBlog
2014-04-19 09:52:52.0
'When you drop dollar bills into the economy'it won't lift all prices and assets equally at the same time,' he said.
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11 Reasons You Should Consider Beekeeping martenson
2014-04-18 16:54:53.0
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US Gas Will Never Replace Russian Gas For Europe martenson
2014-04-18 16:54:53.0
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10 Myths That Suggest Gold Supposedly Has a Bright Future Lorimer Wilson
2014-04-18 16:24:23.0
The bulls are bullish on gold for all the wrong reasons, and
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6 Reasons You'll Love Being a Late-Stage Investor Matthew Milner
2014-04-18 16:04:06.0
A few years ago, a buddy of mine named Charlie invested in Uber.
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In The News Today Jim Sinclair
2014-04-18 15:48:52.0
GEAB N??84 is available! Europe dragged into a division of the world between debtors and creditors: the United States' desperate solutions for not sinking alone - Public announcement GEAB N??84 (April 17, 2014) - In the present confrontation between Russia and the West over the Ukrainian crisis, the image of the Cold War inevitably comes.
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Feedback Friday - April 18, 2014 Redmond W
2014-04-18 15:20:25.0
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How to Predict an Economic Collapse Kate Incontrera
2014-04-18 14:07:01.0
Well, I think you have to look at it in the context of how it all got started and you look back at the financial crisis of 2008, and the Austrian School would say that was inevitable.
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The World's 10 Best Places for Retirement Lorimer Wilson
2014-04-18 13:58:56.0
Loll in the lap of inexpensive luxury at any one of International Living's 10 best
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Oil Trading Alert: Will News from Ukraine Push Crude Oil Above $105? SunshineProfits
2014-04-18 13:37:38.0
Oil Trading Alert originally sent to subscribers on April 18, 2014, 10:04 AM.
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Bitcoin Trading Alert: Important Implications of Going Down SunshineProfits
2014-04-18 13:29:11.0
Bitcoin Trading Alert originally sent to subscribers on April 18, 2014, 12:14 PM.
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Why Heartbleed Will Change the Internet as You Know It Mike Leahy
2014-04-18 12:58:19.0
If you have watched the news or been online since last Monday, you might have heard something about the latest Internet threat to your privacy and online security - the Heartbleed bug.
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SPX Topping Valuations 3 zealllc
2014-04-18 12:26:42.0
The levitating stock markets have been bid up to dangerously high valuations.
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DAILY COMMENTARY FOR APR. 18 goldscents
2014-04-18 12:20:11.0
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What Does Slowdown In China Mean for Gold Prices? Lorimer Wilson
2014-04-18 12:13:04.0
The latest data shows that China is slowing tremendously and this should have positive effects on the future
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LATEST NEWS
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Why China is a positive and not a negative for the gold price going forward
Sun, 20 Apr 2014 07:52:34 -0700
Last week a report from the World Gold Council suggested that around 1,000 tonnes of gold is being used as collateral in Chinese commodity financing deals that would be unwound if the shadow banking complex was to collapse. Not surprisingly news of such a supply overhang depressed the gold price.
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WSJ: Merger Talks Between Barrick Gold, Newmont Mining Break Down
Sat, 19 Apr 2014 20:41:53 -0700
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX, ABX.TO) and Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), the world's largest gold mining companies, were in advanced talks about a merger as they grapple with a sharp drop in the price of gold, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. However, the talks reportedly broke down in the past few days.
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Wine: interesting bottles from big brands
Sat, 19 Apr 2014 13:32:38 -0700
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Wine: what to drink at Easter
Sat, 19 Apr 2014 02:13:39 -0700
What are the best tipples to go with the Easter roast lamb? And what to drink with all that chocolate? Continue reading...
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Prepare for Golds Next Big Breakout
Fri, 18 Apr 2014 12:11:31 -0700
Gold ( XAU/USD ) has concluded the trading week consolidating in a pricing range . However, as price consolidates this allows breakout traders the opportunity to prepare for the markets next big move!
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Wine for the real India
Fri, 18 Apr 2014 12:10:34 -0700
The galis of the old city in Jodhpur (where I was recently) are about as close to "Indyaa" as you can get: too narrow for cars, the only way to get around is by tuk-tuks which barrel down the winding lanes, avoiding cows, incoming two-wheelers and people with aplomb and inches to spare.
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The Smart Way to Sell the Family Silver for Cash
Fri, 18 Apr 2014 07:30:15 -0700
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Raise glass, funds, for culture
Thu, 17 Apr 2014 22:00:00 -0700
The San Angelo Cultural Affairs Council asks for funding only three times a year with its trio of Wine & Food Festival events.
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CORRECTION FROM SOURCE: Silver Mountain Mines Announces Flow-Through Private Placement and Outlines Its 2014 Summer ...
Thu, 17 Apr 2014 11:04:50 -0700
Silver Mountain Mines Inc. announce the Company's 2014 summer drill program and a non-brokered private placement of up to 12,000,000 flow-through units at a price of $0.06 per unit, to raise up to $720,000. ...
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Silver Mountain Mines Announces Follow-Through Private Placement and Outlines Its 2014 Summer Drill Program
Thu, 17 Apr 2014 10:00:00 -0700
Silver Mountain Mines Inc. announce the Company's 2014 summer drill program and a non-brokered private placement of up to 12,000,000 flow-through units at a price of $0.06 per unit, to raise up...
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Gold & Silver Market Morning
Thu, 17 Apr 2014 05:22:25 -0700
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???I invested in gold three years ago and lost 70pc should I sell????
Thu, 17 Apr 2014 03:20:57 -0700
Both the bullion price and gold mining shares have racked up significant losses since 2011, so is it now time to sell?
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SILVER BASE (00886) has risen 5.66%. The last price is HK$1.12
Wed, 16 Apr 2014 19:46:34 -0700
[Rising Stock] SILVER BASE (00886)'s price went up 5.66% at 09:33a.m . Its last price is HK...
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Almaden Announces Positive PEA for the Ixtaca Gold-Silver Deposit, Mexico
Wed, 16 Apr 2014 14:21:48 -0700
Almaden Minerals Ltd. is pleased to report positive results from the maiden National Instrument 43-101 compliant Preliminary Economic Assessment on its 100% owned Ixtaca Gold-Silver deposit, Mexico. This ...
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SILVER BASE (00886) has risen 5.714%. The last price is HK$1.11
Wed, 16 Apr 2014 10:09:26 -0700
[Rising Stock] SILVER BASE (00886)'s price went up 5.714% at 03:59p.m . Its last price is H...
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Wine Time: Casillero del Diablo Cabernet Sauvignon 2012, Chile and Serie Riberas Gran Reserva Chardonnay 2012, Chile
Wed, 16 Apr 2014 07:35:07 -0700
WHAT: To celebrate Earth Day next Tuesday, you might want to consider drinking wine from a winery that is doing its best to minimize harmful effects on the environment. That should be easy because so many wineries are using sustainable practices now.
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LATEST FROM BLOG
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How to use the Commitment of Traders Report?
Wed, 19 Jun 2013 18:08:00 GMT
The Commitment of Traders report (COT report) is a weekly report, which is issued on every Friday by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report contains the details of the positions of all the market participants. Every report that comes on Friday contains the data as of the preceding Tuesday.
The role of CFTC is to Commodities Future & Options market what SEC is to equity markets. The COT is a very handy, reliable and important report as it has good deal of data related to the market positions and trends of various trader groups. It is very useful in understanding the current and future market movements.
The structure of the COT report is detailed and it provides data segregated into different trader groups. The three main categories being: commercial traders, non-commercial traders and non-reportables.
Commercial Traders: They are the main players of the Commodity future markets. They are essentially hedgers and their trades are for actual delivery of the underlying asset. They have the largest positions in the markets and are big entities like Producers and users/consumers. They have the best knowledge of demand, supply & market movements etc. and enter into contracts as per their requirements and forecasts.
Non-commercial traders: They are also generally big traders but unlike the commercial traders, their positions are mostly for speculative profits. They enter a position with a view to make money and exit the position long before the due dates.
Non-reportables: This is the smallest group of traders and consists of individuals or other small entities that trade on speculative lines. Their holdings are individually too small to be required to report to CFTC and hence the name.
Over the years, CFTC has been providing the report with the aforesaid three categories of traders. But in the recent years, it has started providing disaggregated reports, further categorizing the traders. The picture below illustrates the disaggregated trader categories.
In the above classification, Swap dealers represent the Pension funds, endowments etc. These funds rather than directly trading in the future markets, work through the services of Swap dealers.
Basics of COT report
The COT report is a very valuable source of information, which can be used to get an idea of the future market movements and accordingly device a trading strategy. Let's take a sample COT report of Gold Futures dated 11th June and try to understand the basic data sets and their implications.
A gold future contract is of 100 Troy ounces and the above report is a part of the COT report on metals issued by CFTC on 14th of June, 2013. The report shows the category wise positions as on June 11th. In each category, the long and short positions represent the number of contracts held. The total open interest shows the sum of all contracts (both long & short), that have neither expired nor settled. From the above data, we can get the following perspectives about the current market conditions.
The total open interest is 373,844, which is marginally up by 783 from the previous week. This indicates a bit higher market participation. The benefit of an increased open interest is that a higher number of transactions take place increasing the liquidity. At the same time it also indicates better market conditions for trading and may be a sign of trend reversal.
The net position of Producers/Merchants category is still on the bearish side but compared to last week it shows increase of 3,251 in long contracts. Remember that this group has the best knowledge of the markets and they are bearish with slight movements towards bullish side of the fence. This movement towards long position may be short term or long term. Now if we look at the data of past few weeks, we will observe that there is a gradual increase in the long position of this group. The total extent of their short positions has been decreasing over the time. This may indicate a positive outlook for gold in the future.
The swap dealers reflect the same approach as far as the net position is considered.
Managed Money traders have a contrarian position. This may be due to the longer time frame that they generally target, eliminating the reflection of short-term market sentiments in their position.
Other reportable and the non-reportables are generally market followers. They are mostly in a position opposite to that of commercials. One thing that you should always avoid is to follow the trend of non-reportables.
The current COT report can further be compared to the past data and more inferences can be deduced. For example, if you compare the open interest with past data, you would see that it has been falling and has dropped quite low. Also this drop has somewhat stabilized over the past few weeks and it seems to be bottoming up. This indicates that a strong level of support for the gold prices may have been achieved and there are pretty good chances of a trend reversal.
Some takeaways
Now since you have some understanding of how to use COT report, you must keep the following points in mind while using it.
COT report comes with a time delay of 3 days. This is a dampening factor to the uses of the report in framing intraday and very short-term trade strategies.
The data content is excellent and reliable. This makes it a great source of getting market insights.
Further derivations of the COT report in the form index creation or indicators etc can further add to its utility.
Use other tools in combination with COT insights to validate your analysis.
COT report as such is of great value. No wonders why CFTC has to give in to the demands of weekly reports from the market participants, rather than the bi-monthly report that it used to provide in the past. That's all as of now. Happy trading!!!
From quantshare.com
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Gold and Silver Speculator Long Positions Wiped Out
Fri, 26 Apr 2013 21:17:00 GMT
Small speculators, also known as individual investors, have had their net long positions in gold and silver completely wiped out over the last two weeks. As of last Tuesday, these small investors held a mere 133 net long gold contracts, and 2163 net long silver contracts. As recently as September, when we turned cautious on the metals, small speculators held over 60,000 net long gold contracts and 20,000 silver contracts. If the small speculators were to sell anymore gold and silver, they would become net short.
Typically commercial banks manipulate prices on low volume to set the price and then trade at the newly set price in volume. The recent crash in gold and silver began after hours on a Friday, and was hit further by large sell orders Sunday night to take out the well known technical support lines of both metals. Most small retails investors were probably not even contacted by their futures broker. By the time they checked their account the next Monday Morning, either their protective stop orders were triggered or the margin clerk forcefully closed their position. The snowball effect in margin calls and stop loss orders was great enough to last several days.
None of this is surprising. However, we were quite surprised to see that net short positions of commercial traders rose substantially during this period. Typically they would be expected to cover their short positions at lower prices, mopping up the losses of retail investors.
This reveals several important changes to the gold and silver markets:
1) It took an enormous number of short positions added to move the market even on a weekend.
2) The gambit failed, as they were not able to cover these positions in volume after the dump. Nevertheless, as we have been expecting for several years, the commercial traders will be net long before the metals make new highs. But if they can't cover at lower prices, they will begin covering at higher prices as we saw when silver rose from $20 fall 2010 to $50 in spring 2011.
We suspect that the failure of the gold gambit is largely due to the unexpected surge in GLOBAL demand for physical metal. Premiums on bullion products are higher than they were during the 2008 crash, with even junk silver selling at $5-$6 over the paper spot price. This is unprecedented.
The consolidation in gold and silver over the last two years has been painful, especially for mining investors. However, with the prices of the metals at or below production costs, along with shortages of retail bullion products, and zero net long small investors, we are struggling to identify any more sellers. The summer season is typically weak for precious metals, and they could easily back and fill a base over the next six months, however the risk in accumulating physical metals in this price range is very low. We also believe that producing miners with cash holdings represent substantial value at this time.
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Caution Advised in Gold and Silver
Sun, 02 Sep 2012 02:35:00 GMT
Gold and especially silver have succumbed to a long a demoralizing correction over the last 12 to 18 months. The summer doldrums likely marked the bottom of this correction, and the metals have turn the corner higher. However, both gold and silver investors will likely have their resolve tested once again in the coming weeks before the metals are able to break higher.
Precious metals (GLD, SLV), and mining equities surged from their 2008 lows to their 2011 highs in reaction to massive monetary intervention, and an initial surge in inflationary expectations. Although interest rates have remained near zero, and real interest rates are clearly negative, precious metals investors have been disappointed by the ongoing global stagflationary wealth destruction, and the failure of further intervention by policy makers. The Federal Reserve has admitted that the US economy is weaker than desired, yet it has also continually disappointed in announcing a new quantitative easing as it seeks political justification.
The last two years of global policy makers kicking the can down the road, in conjunction with weaker demand from India, has created the environment for a severe correction in gold, silver, and miners. While it hasn't been the most severe in terms of percentage loss, it has likely been the most severe in terms of sentiment. With Europe, India, China, and the US all decelerating at a rapid pace, and the US fiscal cliff returning the political forefront, we believe that we are months away at the most from a turn in monetary policy. Verbal intervention has run its course, and real monetary intervention is a mathematical certainty.
Gold miners(GDX) bottomed in May, and are leading the metals. They are now overbought and could face a sharp correction before breaking out.
Gold and silver may already have begun pricing in future intervention, however commercial banks are not yet on board with the breakout in gold and silver. Net commercial short positions in both gold and silver, at a time when prices are near resistance levels and overbought are indicating that a short and severe correction could be imminent.
Silver has had an especially large spike in commercial short positions over the last three weeks.
The current commercial short positions in silver and gold must be reduced before the metals can break higher. In other words, commercial banks must cover the majority of their short positions. While they could cover as prices rise, history suggests that the most likely scenario is for the commercial banks to take down the price and cover at lower levels. This correction will likely coincide with the realization of a global recession/depression in 2013 and end with the realization of further monetary intervention.
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