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EDITORIALS
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S&P 100 Large Caps Fatigued ciovaccocapital.com
2012-01-27 14:06:46.0
While it may not morph into anything further, the daily chart of the S&P 100 Index below is limping into the weekend.
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Jim Opines On Martin Armstrong's Latest Prediction Jim Sinclair
2012-01-27 14:06:38.0
My Dear Friends, I have made it a practice not to comment on other people's opinions as everyone has a right to voice how they see things and express themselves.
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The Fed, the S&P 500, & Why Gold Is Shining Bright Chris Vermeulen
2012-01-27 14:05:32.0
'I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.
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In The News Today Jim Sinclair
2012-01-27 13:59:30.0
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Marc Faber on the derivatives bubble MarcFaberBlog
2012-01-27 12:41:43.0
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Marc Faber not very bullish & not very bearish about the Markets MarcFaberBlog
2012-01-27 12:41:42.0
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Zero Interest Rates & The pumping of cash into the system creates BUBBLES MarcFaberBlog
2012-01-27 12:41:42.0
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Ben Bernanke Press Conference - 25 Jan 2012 MarcFaberBlog
2012-01-27 12:41:42.0
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Gold ETF Mass Exodus zealllc
2012-01-27 12:19:09.0
As gold fell to correction lows in December, bears feared a big GLD liquidation crushing gold further.
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Commodities Take Off! Chuck Butler
2012-01-27 12:14:07.0
The Greek talks returned to the headlines this morning.
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Daily Digest 1/27 - Sting Cost Google Millions, Outlook Still Grim For Greece, Aging Population Stresses Prisons DailyDigest
2012-01-27 12:14:06.0
Con Artist Starred in Sting That Cost Google Millions Israel Senses Bluffing in Iran's Threats of Retaliation Pattern of Intimidation Is Seen in Arrests of Iranian Journalists and Bloggers At Euro Talks, a Calm Arm-Twister From the U.
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The Stock Market and the Dollar Sustain the Bullish Environment for Precious Metals Sunshine Profits
2012-01-27 12:01:24.0
The Stock Market and the Dollar Sustain the Bullish Environment for Precious Metals Posted January 27th, 2012 Based on the January 27th, 2012 Premium Update.
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S&P Push Toward 1,327/1,340 Reasonable ciovaccocapital.com
2012-01-27 11:48:50.0
In early January we stated it made sense to see how the S&P 500 acted between 1,285 and 1,340 (see 1:47 mark of
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Fairness and the U.S. Constitution Bill Bonner
2012-01-27 11:42:33.0
Why the pursuit of 'fairness' tends to breed its opposite.
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The Rollercoaster of Debt Sean Corrigan
2012-01-27 11:42:33.0
Wheeee! It's all fun and games ' until there's a horrible crash.
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Gold and Silver Set to be Currency War Winners Greg Canavan
2012-01-27 11:42:33.0
The Fed's latest salvo in a war that could boost
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Find 'Greece', Replace With 'Portugal' ciovaccocapital.com
2012-01-27 11:42:32.0
The leaders in Europe want you to believe that Greece 'is a special case' and that no other country will be giving bondholders 'haircuts'.
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IMF Begs Policymakers to Prevent World Economy From Falling into a 1930s-style Death Spiral! Editor
2012-01-26 23:53:44.0
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Bought CGR @ $1.46 - CDY Update TSItrader
2012-01-26 23:34:30.0
First a brief update on Cardero Resources (CDY).
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Zero Interest Rates & The pumping of cash into the system creates BUBBLES MarcFaberBlog
2012-01-26 22:22:04.0
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LATEST NEWS
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Gold ETF Mass Exodus
Fri, 27 Jan 2012 09:33:33 -0800
Gold is enjoying an awesome January, rallying strongly out of its oversold late-December lows.
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NZ wine exports grow 9.5%, bottled-wine price holds steady
Fri, 27 Jan 2012 08:36:54 -0800
New Zealand wine continues to find favour in overseas markets, with export volumes up 9.5% to 131 million litres in the 10 months to October last year. read more
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Silver Price Surpasses $33 on Fed Statements
Fri, 27 Jan 2012 08:36:12 -0800
Silver prices rose for a second consecutive session on the back of the Federal Reserve commitment to near zero interest rates through 2014.
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Gold Price Increases Following Federal Reserve Rate Announcement
Fri, 27 Jan 2012 08:36:02 -0800
Following Wednesday's announcement by the Federal Reserve that interest rates would likely stay near zero in the coming two years, the price of gold surge to its highest price in four months.
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Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 01.27.2012
Fri, 27 Jan 2012 08:07:00 -0800
Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 01.27.2012
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Gold Price Firm, U.S. GDP Misses Expectations
Fri, 27 Jan 2012 07:51:55 -0800
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El Tigre Silver Corp. Announces Closing of Private Placement
Fri, 27 Jan 2012 06:00:00 -0800
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA-- - El Tigre Silver Corp. is pleased to announce that it has closed the second and final tranche of its previously announced non-brokered private placement . The Company closed ...
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Fortuna Readies to Ride the Silver Price Rally
Fri, 27 Jan 2012 05:00:07 -0800
NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- If silver prices can sustain their recent rally, Fortuna Silver Mines is poised to deliver a knock-out punch. Fortuna is a little known silver company with two operating underground mines in Peru and Mexico and a killer growth rate. Silver production popped 31% in 2011 while gold production grew 174%. The miner is on track to produce 3.7 million ounces of silver and 17 ...
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Wine Miles ??? Back on the Road Again
Thu, 26 Jan 2012 20:47:08 -0800
Last week an article appeared in Harpers Wine and Spirits on the back of a press release outlining how wines from the Rueda region in Spain were poised to take market share away from New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc in the UK.
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Australia's Strong Dollar Puts a Cork in Its Wine Sales
Thu, 26 Jan 2012 17:09:35 -0800
A soaring currency hits Aussie winemakers on two fronts: Higher prices hurt their exports, and lower prices on imports shrink sales at home
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2011 a vintage year for sales of California wine
Thu, 26 Jan 2012 15:01:19 -0800
2011 marked largest shipment increase in over a decade in spite of dry economy
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U.S. Silver Announces Effective Date of Consolidation as January 30, 2012
Thu, 26 Jan 2012 13:45:00 -0800
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Research and Markets: Wine In Australia - Forecasts to 2016 - Foster's on Top Despite Demerging Beer and Wine Divisions
Thu, 26 Jan 2012 13:00:00 -0800
Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "Wine In Australia" report to their offering.
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Debt Ceiling Target Hits $16.4 Trillion: Gold and Silver Continue Rally
Thu, 26 Jan 2012 12:19:30 -0800
Your daily recap on precious metals...
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Raise a toast to love with these California wine country getaways
Thu, 26 Jan 2012 11:04:40 -0800
NAPA, Calif. - You like chocolate. You like warm baths. But are you ready for a milk chocolate bath for two?
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California wine country getaways for two
Thu, 26 Jan 2012 09:38:19 -0800
You like chocolate. You like warm baths. But are you ready for a milk chocolate bath for two?
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LATEST FROM BLOG
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Precious Metals Investments Have the Most Bullish Fundamentals than Anytime During the Entire Bull Market
Mon, 26 Dec 2011 16:04:00 GMT
2011 was a volatile transitory year for most markets as the primary monetary concern shifted from asset inflation to asset deflation. Sentiment in gold and silver trended lower throughout the year as speculative positions were liquidated and money managers poured money into US government treasuries yielding record low interest rates both nominal and real. This trend can easily be seen in the under performance of platinum, which price has fallen below the price of gold despite the fact that it is 30 times more rare.
Gold has been up every year since its bull market began in 2001. Gold is the most stable of the precious metals. Takedowns are limited as central banks compete in bidding to accumulate it.
Silver had an intermediate top in the end up April, and suffered from several massive engineered hits. In addition, nearly 600,000 ounces of silver was stolen from small investors by MF Global, and transferred to JP Morgan. The result has been a collapse in open interest, as investors abandon the idea that paper silver can protect them from pending global hyperinflation. The default by the COMEX to protect investors using the exchange has proven that money invested in futures and even exchange allocated gold and silver is not safe.
As of last December 20th, the well documented net commercial short silver position was a mere 14,825. As we anticipated earlier this year, the commercial short banks have covered nearly all of their short position in the $26-32 range. They will soon convert to net long in anticipation of the next round of dollar devaluation.
Silver is not the only market that commercial traders have dominated. The commercial banks were massively short the Euro this spring prior to its collapse. Now that the collapse has occurred, commercial traders are now massively long the Euro as dumb money piles into the US dollar and treasuries that pay zero or even negative interest rates. The prevailing belief is that a further collapse of the Euro will lead to a deflationary crisis in which the US dollar trumps all assets. Commercial banks, which almost always win, are strongly betting against this belief as they pile into the Euro and precious metals.
While physically owned precious metals have held their value, leveraged speculators in futures and options have been demolished. If three-day take downs and volatile price movements didn???t ruin them, outright theft of their assets from MF Global and the COMEX did. Silver and junior mining stocks suffered a similar fate and are now swinging in the desert wind. If mining itself wasn???t risky enough, 2011 proved that everything from government confiscation of mining assets, illegal shorting selling attacks, naked shorting, to outright theft qualify as categorical risks. Producing silver miners such as PAAS, SSRI, and SVM lost roughly half their value during the trading year. PAAS and SSRI were plagued by socialist policies of Argentina including new capital controls, and an illegal short selling scheme lead by an anonymous trader known Alfred Little attacked SVM. In the meanwhile actual earnings and cash flow for these companies grew at double and triple digits. The result has been a massive PE compression in which companies growing at double and triple digit rates now have PE ratios of less than 10 ??? which are based on the current low metals prices. Many of the miners are also using part of their cash flow to increase dividends and stock buy backs in addition to their operational expansion programs.
| | PAAS | SSRI | SLW | SVM | AUY | | EPS | 2.68 | 0.03 | 1.63 | 0.56 | 0.98 | | Revenue Est | 894M | 181M | 767M | 271M | 2.2B | | year ago revenue | 632M | 112M | 423M | 167M | 1.7B | | 2012 Est | 3.11 | 1.06 | 2.43 | 0.72 | 1.27 | | price | 22.33 | 13.46 | 29.58 | 6.42 | 15.08 | | pe | 8.33 | 448.67 | 18.15 | 11.46 | 15.39 | | pe 2012 | 7.18 | 12.70 | 12.17 | 8.92 | 11.87 | | yoy earnings growth | 16.04% | 3433.33% | 49.08% | 28.57% | 29.59% | | peg | 0.52 | 0.13 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 0.52 |
While the timing can???t be predicted, confidence in the global financial system continues to wane. Guaranteed negative interest rates for at least the next two years, also guarantees positive fundamentals for precious metals. Gold and silver are clearly in multi-month consolidations, which is natural given that they were the best performing assets of 2010. The inevitable further devaluation of global currencies will continue to facilitate a bullish environment for the metals. Investors with a long-term outlook have an excellent opportunity to accumulate gold, silver, and especially profitable dividend paying gold and silver producers that must increase by multiples to fulfill their potential value.
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Silver Shorts Cover Nearly Half Their Position In One Week
Sun, 02 Oct 2011 21:38:00 GMT
As we anticipated earlier this year, commercial shorts including JPM are finally within grasping reach of covering their positions and transitioning to net long. For more than a decade, the large commercial trading banks have been trapped with an enormous short position in silver as the price has risen from its lows near $3 to its May high of nearly $50. Most analysts expected the commercial shorts to be broken in a short squeeze, likely launching silver above $100. However, this short squeeze will not occur.
In September 2010 these traders began to aggressively cover their short positions. Since then, commercial net short positions in silver have been reduced from over 65,000 contracts to 24,262 as of September 27, 2011 - and falling from 40,708 just one week earlier.
The large September take down from the $40 price level to the $30 price level has completely wiped out the small leveraged speculators, which saw their net long positions crash from 18,170 the previous week to 8,837. Meanwhile, open interest is threatening to break below the 100,000 level - indicating that speculative money has abandoned silver and sentiment is extremely low amongst investors. The combinational one-two punch of the May takedown and September takedown served to transition contracts from speculators to the commercial shorts at a much lower average price than most analysts ever expected.
The bullish trend line in silver that began in 2009 remains intact. However commercial shorts are now within a few weeks of trading their way out of an impossibly large short position to go net long. We expect the remaining positions to be covered within the $26 to $32 price range under the guise of bearish speculator sentiment.
This is extremely bullish for silver's long term trend, as the commercial banks will capture more profits from the bull market in precious metals than any other trading group. Once the commercial banks have a net long position their financial incentive will reverse from using takedowns to take-ups. This will likely coincide with the next round of monetary intervention by the Federal Reserve and the beginning of the third phase in the silver bull market - in which waves of retail investors push silver to its destined triple digit price level.
For more news and analysis visit TradePlacer.com
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Commercial Banks to Cover Their Silver Short Positions
Sat, 02 Jul 2011 17:34:00 GMT
After an extended period of consolidation, the price of silver launched from $17 in August 2010 to just under $50 in April 2011. The fuel behind this move was not speculative buying, but instead short covering by large commercial short traders including JP Morgan.
As short covering buyers pushed the silver price up to its all time historic high of $50, several factors led to the large selloff in May. A breakout of $50 would remove technical resistance and attract fast money speculative traders that could quickly spike the price of silver to $100. Knowing this, JP Morgan likely hit the panic button. Readers can fill in the blanks, but what is public knowledge is that the CME embarked on an unprecedented series of increases in margin hikes which forced a liquidation of leveraged traders positions before they had the chance to put up more capital. One round of margin hikes was actually made on a Sunday.
Smart money investors who had purchased the majority of their long silver positions below $10 anticipated this move and aggressively sold into the short term peak. The $50 level is a key pivot point in silver because it represents a 10x gain in price for early investors who purchased below $5 prior to 2005. Silver was also 70 percent above its 200 dma which has defined silver spike peaks historically. Even most silver analysts who have been long term bullish on the metal sold large tranches of their positions. This profit taking was natural and healthy.
These paper silver contracts that were sold went directly into the hands of the commercial shorts. The resulting consequence is that the open interest in silver has collapsed from a peak of 158,000 on October 2010 to 114,000. Meanwhile the banks that were trapped in their large commercial short positions have been able to successfully cover more than half of their short positions at an average price of less than $40. As of last Tuesday, the net commercial short position in silver stood at a mere 29,166 in the fundamental vicinity of silver's major low in 2008 when it was in the $8-$9 range. If the trend continues at this pace, the commercial shorts will be able to successfully cover their positions and go net long by the end of the year.
We expect this likely scenario to occur, mostly due to the fact that even smart money investors are afraid to stand and take delivery. The implication is that the commercial banks will indeed profit more than any other group from the rise in silver. This is extremely bullish for the long term price of silver because once the commercial banks are net long, there will no longer be a financial incentive to cap the price. A similar, but not as powerful, pattern occurred in oil before its run from $50 to $150 during 2007 and 2008.
Silver will likely remain week for the remainder of the summer while it consolidates down to a major support level at $30, and its 200 dma near $31. Clearly, the selloff in positions from smart money investors to institutions shows that silver is in the mid to later stage of the second phase in the silver bull market. The next push to and above $50 will not see the same resistance, and will likely be launched with the next round of quantitative easing as the US fends off its own bankruptcy.
For more information visit TradePlacer.com
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