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EDITORIALS
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Precious Metals Set V-Bottom At Key Support Level Gold Silver Worlds
2014-04-24 18:21:30.0
The precious metals have had a very choppy day, with the triggering of downside stops resulting in sharp falls in gold, silver, platinum and palladium.
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Bold Predictions from the Bubble Crowd Dave Gonigam
2014-04-24 18:08:06.0
Uhhh… What happened?Judging by the headlines in mainstream financial media when we woke up, we were supposed to get an enormous rally after fabulous numbers last night from Apple and Facebook.
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Has The S&P 500 Topped At Exactly The Same Price As Gold? Gold Silver Worlds
2014-04-24 16:58:31.0
Chances are high that the S&P500 is in the process of making a huge top.
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The Price Floor That's Key to Gold Mining Profits Matt Insley
2014-04-24 15:51:36.0
Chocolate milk isn't my ice-cold beverage of choice.
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Off the Cuff: Abnormal Times martenson
2014-04-24 15:04:31.0
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Russia vs. Apple: How To Monitor The Battle ciovaccocapital.com
2014-04-24 13:57:02.0
Apple: The Good NewsApple, one of the darlings of the current bull market, delivered on the earnings, share repurchase, and split fronts after the close Wednesday.
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Jim's Mailbox Jim Sinclair
2014-04-24 13:55:53.0
THE LAW: The Bunkerville Raid and Beyond By CIGA Pat Henry Perversion: the alteration of something from its original course, meaning, or state, to a distortion or corruption of what was first intended.
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Inside Good Delivery Gold Refining Miguel Perez-Santalla
2014-04-24 13:50:22.0
Gold refining insights from Good Delivery accredited OPM Metals.
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In The News Today Jim Sinclair
2014-04-24 13:49:10.0
Jim Sinclair's Commentary Mr.
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Why You Should Tune-Out the Talk of a Tech Bubble Paul Mampilly
2014-04-24 13:43:32.0
If you ask us, David Einhorn's talk of a tech bubble is a heap of horse dung.
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Gold Mining: Where Did New Discoveries Go? Addison Wiggin
2014-04-24 13:29:34.0
High spending is over.
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Only the Sane Fear Hyperinflation Tim Price
2014-04-24 13:22:54.0
Contrary to the Financial Times' Martin Wolf, rising prices are already causing madness.
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Gold Is Personal, Not Geopolitical Hard Assets Investor
2014-04-24 13:09:25.0
Why the Ukraine crisis shouldn't lead your gold investment thinking.
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The Scariest Thing You Don't Know About Generic Drugs David Eifrig
2014-04-24 12:15:30.0
Karen Bartlett spent months recovering in the hospital after losing two-thirds of her skin and needing a medically induced coma.
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In The News Today Jim Sinclair
2014-04-24 11:33:36.0
Jim Sinclair's Commentary Think what increased interest rates would mean.
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Daily Digest 4/24 - The Wisdom Of Going Solar martenson
2014-04-24 11:08:00.0
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An Unlikely Source of Dirt-Cheap Energy Greg Guenthner
2014-04-24 10:47:34.0
Solar power is celebrating a big event.
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Platinum Prices Vulnerable to Further Losses Debbie Carlson
2014-04-24 10:40:58.0
Platinum prices could be vulnerable to further losses in the near-term, although metals analysts remain bullish on the white metal in the long-term.
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Dr Marc Faber to speak in Vietnam on June 19 2014 MarcFaberBlog
2014-04-24 10:20:50.0
Dr Marc Faber?? is scheduled to reiterate how global bubbles are created and predict when they will burst at the Vietnam Investment Forum (VIF) 2014 to be co-organised by VIR, Malaysian-owned HVS.
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Gold and Silver Stocks Begin Oversold Bounce Jordan Roy-Byrne
2014-04-24 10:14:13.0
The bottoming process for gold and silver shares has been arduous as they've oscillated back and forth for almost a year.
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LATEST NEWS
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Margaux Price Cut for 2013 Wine Follows Lead From Lafite
Thu, 24 Apr 2014 16:30:17 -0700
A 10 percent price cut on its 2013 vintage from Chateau Margaux this week followed reductions from rival first-growths Chateau Lafite Rothschild and Chateau Mouton Rothschild as top Bordeaux estates tested market demand.
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As wine touches lofty heights, spotlight turns on fake wine
Thu, 24 Apr 2014 15:57:06 -0700
But the rising prices have also spurred counterfeiters who target collectors eager to flaunt trophy wines - and pay handsomely for their acquisitions.
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Metro, MWAA agreement puts Silver Line on course to open in summer
Thu, 24 Apr 2014 15:20:00 -0700
Metro will allow MWAA more time to complete certain parts of the project after it is turned over to the transit authority but before start of service.
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Sandstorm Gold Provides Update on Warrants and Share Structure
Thu, 24 Apr 2014 14:12:00 -0700
Sandstorm Gold Provides Update on Warrants and Share Structure
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Attack of the metals short sellers: Joe Reagor
Thu, 24 Apr 2014 10:36:56 -0700
Despite the ongoing attack of the short-sellers, the fundamentals of gold and silver production are increasingly robust.
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Gold erases losses as new Ukraine worries hit equities, dollar
Thu, 24 Apr 2014 09:12:35 -0700
Gold erased earlier losses on Thursday, as new signs of an escalation in tensions in Ukraine hit global stock markets, bolstering the metal's appeal as an insurance against risk. Prices rose as much as 1.1 percent to a session high of $1,297 an ounce after Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying that Russia had started military drills near the ...
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Are Gold ETFs Currently A Buy?
Thu, 24 Apr 2014 08:53:27 -0700
The price of gold fell to the lowest level in months this morning before a sudden reversal higher as stocks began to move lower. The SPDR Gold ETF (NYSE: GLD ) has fallen seven percent in the last six ...
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Effortlessly Prepare a Wine Infused Chicken with the New Epicureanist Chicken Roaster
Thu, 24 Apr 2014 08:22:00 -0700
IRVINE, Calif. -- Epicureanist, the one-stop-online-shop for every wine, food and entertaining accessory imaginable, today launched the Epicureanist Chicken Roaster. As the first ceramic chicken roaster ...
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CLSA Upgrades Apple on Back of Q2 Results
Thu, 24 Apr 2014 07:58:55 -0700
On Thursday, CLSA upgraded shares of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) from Outperform to Buy and raised the price target from $610 to $695. Analyst Avi Silver's upgrade is based on: Earnings momentum poised to accelerate ...
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Price & Time: Gold Cracks Big Support
Thu, 24 Apr 2014 06:00:00 -0700
Price & Time: Gold Cracks Big Support
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Sandstorm Gold Announces US$10 Million Loan to Luna Gold & Drilling Program at Aurizona
Thu, 24 Apr 2014 02:30:00 -0700
Sandstorm Gold Announces US$10 Million Loan to Luna Gold & Drilling Program at Aurizona
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Rising US Yields Push Gold Price towards April Low, $1277 Tipping Point
Thu, 24 Apr 2014 01:00:00 -0700
Rising US Yields Push Gold Price towards April Low, $1277 Tipping Point
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Newmont's Merger Talks With Barrick Is Driven By Fear Of A Lower Gold Price
Thu, 24 Apr 2014 00:19:39 -0700
Billed as a way of creating value for investors the proposal to create a gold-mining giant by merging Newmont Mining and Barrick Gold is really an admission by both companies that they are not optimistic about the future price of gold.
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The bitter aftertaste of a fake
Wed, 23 Apr 2014 23:15:33 -0700
A series of recent scandals has turned the spotlight on the problem of fake wines, the New York Times reports.
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Standard & Poor Positively Rerates AngloGold Ashanti
Wed, 23 Apr 2014 21:15:38 -0700
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Indy's top wine lists
Wed, 23 Apr 2014 12:01:06 -0700
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LATEST FROM BLOG
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How to use the Commitment of Traders Report?
Wed, 19 Jun 2013 18:08:00 GMT
The Commitment of Traders report (COT report) is a weekly report, which is issued on every Friday by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report contains the details of the positions of all the market participants. Every report that comes on Friday contains the data as of the preceding Tuesday.
The role of CFTC is to Commodities Future & Options market what SEC is to equity markets. The COT is a very handy, reliable and important report as it has good deal of data related to the market positions and trends of various trader groups. It is very useful in understanding the current and future market movements.
The structure of the COT report is detailed and it provides data segregated into different trader groups. The three main categories being: commercial traders, non-commercial traders and non-reportables.
Commercial Traders: They are the main players of the Commodity future markets. They are essentially hedgers and their trades are for actual delivery of the underlying asset. They have the largest positions in the markets and are big entities like Producers and users/consumers. They have the best knowledge of demand, supply & market movements etc. and enter into contracts as per their requirements and forecasts.
Non-commercial traders: They are also generally big traders but unlike the commercial traders, their positions are mostly for speculative profits. They enter a position with a view to make money and exit the position long before the due dates.
Non-reportables: This is the smallest group of traders and consists of individuals or other small entities that trade on speculative lines. Their holdings are individually too small to be required to report to CFTC and hence the name.
Over the years, CFTC has been providing the report with the aforesaid three categories of traders. But in the recent years, it has started providing disaggregated reports, further categorizing the traders. The picture below illustrates the disaggregated trader categories.
In the above classification, Swap dealers represent the Pension funds, endowments etc. These funds rather than directly trading in the future markets, work through the services of Swap dealers.
Basics of COT report
The COT report is a very valuable source of information, which can be used to get an idea of the future market movements and accordingly device a trading strategy. Let's take a sample COT report of Gold Futures dated 11th June and try to understand the basic data sets and their implications.
A gold future contract is of 100 Troy ounces and the above report is a part of the COT report on metals issued by CFTC on 14th of June, 2013. The report shows the category wise positions as on June 11th. In each category, the long and short positions represent the number of contracts held. The total open interest shows the sum of all contracts (both long & short), that have neither expired nor settled. From the above data, we can get the following perspectives about the current market conditions.
The total open interest is 373,844, which is marginally up by 783 from the previous week. This indicates a bit higher market participation. The benefit of an increased open interest is that a higher number of transactions take place increasing the liquidity. At the same time it also indicates better market conditions for trading and may be a sign of trend reversal.
The net position of Producers/Merchants category is still on the bearish side but compared to last week it shows increase of 3,251 in long contracts. Remember that this group has the best knowledge of the markets and they are bearish with slight movements towards bullish side of the fence. This movement towards long position may be short term or long term. Now if we look at the data of past few weeks, we will observe that there is a gradual increase in the long position of this group. The total extent of their short positions has been decreasing over the time. This may indicate a positive outlook for gold in the future.
The swap dealers reflect the same approach as far as the net position is considered.
Managed Money traders have a contrarian position. This may be due to the longer time frame that they generally target, eliminating the reflection of short-term market sentiments in their position.
Other reportable and the non-reportables are generally market followers. They are mostly in a position opposite to that of commercials. One thing that you should always avoid is to follow the trend of non-reportables.
The current COT report can further be compared to the past data and more inferences can be deduced. For example, if you compare the open interest with past data, you would see that it has been falling and has dropped quite low. Also this drop has somewhat stabilized over the past few weeks and it seems to be bottoming up. This indicates that a strong level of support for the gold prices may have been achieved and there are pretty good chances of a trend reversal.
Some takeaways
Now since you have some understanding of how to use COT report, you must keep the following points in mind while using it.
COT report comes with a time delay of 3 days. This is a dampening factor to the uses of the report in framing intraday and very short-term trade strategies.
The data content is excellent and reliable. This makes it a great source of getting market insights.
Further derivations of the COT report in the form index creation or indicators etc can further add to its utility.
Use other tools in combination with COT insights to validate your analysis.
COT report as such is of great value. No wonders why CFTC has to give in to the demands of weekly reports from the market participants, rather than the bi-monthly report that it used to provide in the past. That's all as of now. Happy trading!!!
From quantshare.com
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Gold and Silver Speculator Long Positions Wiped Out
Fri, 26 Apr 2013 21:17:00 GMT
Small speculators, also known as individual investors, have had their net long positions in gold and silver completely wiped out over the last two weeks. As of last Tuesday, these small investors held a mere 133 net long gold contracts, and 2163 net long silver contracts. As recently as September, when we turned cautious on the metals, small speculators held over 60,000 net long gold contracts and 20,000 silver contracts. If the small speculators were to sell anymore gold and silver, they would become net short.
Typically commercial banks manipulate prices on low volume to set the price and then trade at the newly set price in volume. The recent crash in gold and silver began after hours on a Friday, and was hit further by large sell orders Sunday night to take out the well known technical support lines of both metals. Most small retails investors were probably not even contacted by their futures broker. By the time they checked their account the next Monday Morning, either their protective stop orders were triggered or the margin clerk forcefully closed their position. The snowball effect in margin calls and stop loss orders was great enough to last several days.
None of this is surprising. However, we were quite surprised to see that net short positions of commercial traders rose substantially during this period. Typically they would be expected to cover their short positions at lower prices, mopping up the losses of retail investors.
This reveals several important changes to the gold and silver markets:
1) It took an enormous number of short positions added to move the market even on a weekend.
2) The gambit failed, as they were not able to cover these positions in volume after the dump. Nevertheless, as we have been expecting for several years, the commercial traders will be net long before the metals make new highs. But if they can't cover at lower prices, they will begin covering at higher prices as we saw when silver rose from $20 fall 2010 to $50 in spring 2011.
We suspect that the failure of the gold gambit is largely due to the unexpected surge in GLOBAL demand for physical metal. Premiums on bullion products are higher than they were during the 2008 crash, with even junk silver selling at $5-$6 over the paper spot price. This is unprecedented.
The consolidation in gold and silver over the last two years has been painful, especially for mining investors. However, with the prices of the metals at or below production costs, along with shortages of retail bullion products, and zero net long small investors, we are struggling to identify any more sellers. The summer season is typically weak for precious metals, and they could easily back and fill a base over the next six months, however the risk in accumulating physical metals in this price range is very low. We also believe that producing miners with cash holdings represent substantial value at this time.
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Caution Advised in Gold and Silver
Sun, 02 Sep 2012 02:35:00 GMT
Gold and especially silver have succumbed to a long a demoralizing correction over the last 12 to 18 months. The summer doldrums likely marked the bottom of this correction, and the metals have turn the corner higher. However, both gold and silver investors will likely have their resolve tested once again in the coming weeks before the metals are able to break higher.
Precious metals (GLD, SLV), and mining equities surged from their 2008 lows to their 2011 highs in reaction to massive monetary intervention, and an initial surge in inflationary expectations. Although interest rates have remained near zero, and real interest rates are clearly negative, precious metals investors have been disappointed by the ongoing global stagflationary wealth destruction, and the failure of further intervention by policy makers. The Federal Reserve has admitted that the US economy is weaker than desired, yet it has also continually disappointed in announcing a new quantitative easing as it seeks political justification.
The last two years of global policy makers kicking the can down the road, in conjunction with weaker demand from India, has created the environment for a severe correction in gold, silver, and miners. While it hasn't been the most severe in terms of percentage loss, it has likely been the most severe in terms of sentiment. With Europe, India, China, and the US all decelerating at a rapid pace, and the US fiscal cliff returning the political forefront, we believe that we are months away at the most from a turn in monetary policy. Verbal intervention has run its course, and real monetary intervention is a mathematical certainty.
Gold miners(GDX) bottomed in May, and are leading the metals. They are now overbought and could face a sharp correction before breaking out.
Gold and silver may already have begun pricing in future intervention, however commercial banks are not yet on board with the breakout in gold and silver. Net commercial short positions in both gold and silver, at a time when prices are near resistance levels and overbought are indicating that a short and severe correction could be imminent.
Silver has had an especially large spike in commercial short positions over the last three weeks.
The current commercial short positions in silver and gold must be reduced before the metals can break higher. In other words, commercial banks must cover the majority of their short positions. While they could cover as prices rise, history suggests that the most likely scenario is for the commercial banks to take down the price and cover at lower levels. This correction will likely coincide with the realization of a global recession/depression in 2013 and end with the realization of further monetary intervention.
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