Commodity trading is best done with the help of technical analysis. Technical analysis shows a trader the direction; he should take while dealing with commodities. Whether one should buy or sell is best determined with the help of Technical Analysis. A good trading system will always incorporate methods used in TA within itself.
Technical Analysis Defined
The process of determining the condition of a commodity (based on the historic price) with the help of charting is called Technical Analysis. It combines probability mathematics and statistical information to determine the future price movement of a commodity with probability on your side. For example, if someone were to walk up to a door, and you were told to guess which direction they would go - left or right, whatever you chose, it would be speculation. On the other hand, if they went left, and you followed them, that would be called trend following. Similarly, if a commodity future moves in a direction and you use TA to guide you, you can buy it after it shows a move into a certain direction, and a trend has been confirmed.
Uses Of Technical Analysis
There are many ways TA helps traders in trading commodities. The primary principle in TA is to have the ability to follow trends. To be able to do this, one has to be able to catch it early enough. So, you can buy into a commodity if you can confirm that it is in an uptrend. The key point to remember is that TA assumes that price discounts everything.
All movements of market participants are reflected in the price of any commodity at any given point in time. The idea is to buy low and sell high, or vice versa. This sounds simple in theory, but is difficult enough in real life. Imagine knowing that the probability of a commodity will breakout on the upside, but also that it is only a probability, and not a surety.
How Do We Use Technical Analysis?
TA has many different theories. These include common theories and indicators such as moving averages, Fibonacci series, oscillators, Gann theory, Elliot wave theory, and the age-old Candlestick theory from Japan. Many users tend to combine one or more of these theories to get greater accuracy in determining the trend more correctly in their favor. One has to remember that probability needs to be on our side.
The risk to reward ratio should always be in our favor. A lot of people use TA to help them establish a trend, get the point of a breakout and look for a point to buy or sell a commodity. They also use it to determine their stop-loss, and possible target price. This is an advantage that TA has over any other form of analysis. Being mathematical in nature, it gives you exact figures as to what levels you need to enter and exit a commodity.
