Interestingly, over the past six years Gold & Silver have not been correlated to rising inflation expectations. They have appeared to lead inflation expectations by several months. Recent increases in inflation expectations have led to rising real interest rates, which is bearish for Gold & Silver.

The last time inflation expectations peaked and rolled over was the summer of 2018 when Gold & Silver bottomed. The bond market is telling us growth and inflation will roll over this year, which means the Fed will have pause its rate hikes. Although real interest rates are rising, the Gold & Silver market may be thinking that rise is unsustainable.

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