Higher for longer hurts precious metals in the near term as the market discounts tighter policy and higher real rates. However, higher for longer could bring rate cuts and policy easing much sooner than if the Fed stopped at 5%.

If the Fed follows through on higher for longer, it could end up being a huge catalyst for precious metals. History shows that during inflationary periods the Fed was very quick to go from a rate hike to a rate cut. The reason is a recession suddenly brings about lower inflation and lower inflation expectations.

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